Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stands to leave after signing a book of condolences marking the passing of former U.S. president Jimmy Carter at the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa on Jan. 3.Blair Gable/Reuters
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was back at work Friday but said nothing about his political future as MPs met behind closed doors to hash out what kind of pressure they could exert to force him to declare whether he’ll stay or go.
His caucus is frustrated by the silence. Regional caucus chairs met late in the day, and three MPs said that a national caucus meeting is scheduled for next Wednesday, where they want Mr. Trudeau to reveal his decision. The Globe and Mail is not naming the MPs because they were not publicly authorized to disclose internal caucus discussions.
The Atlantic, Ontario and Quebec caucuses have signalled that most of their membership no longer supports Mr. Trudeau remaining at the helm. Of the 153 seats the Liberals hold in the Commons, those three regions account for 131 of them.
Another MP, Winnipeg’s Ben Carr, added his name publicly Friday to the list of those who think Mr. Trudeau should go.
In a statement posted to social media, Mr. Carr – the son of former Liberal cabinet minister Jim Carr – thanked Mr. Trudeau. But after listening to his constituents, it became clear it is time for someone else to take over, he said.
“What I have heard consistently from the people I represent is that they are not feeling alienated by progressive values and policies, but rather by our leadership.”
A cascade of calls for Mr. Trudeau to resign followed Chrystia Freeland quitting her post as finance minister on Dec. 16, just hours before she was to deliver the fall economic statement.
Mr. Trudeau subsequently told MPs that he’d reflect on his future, and his inner circle signalled just before the holiday break that he wouldn’t announce any decisions over that time period.
A senior Liberal source said that over the past two weeks, Mr. Trudeau’s closest advisers have been consulting with senior Liberals about how it could work if Mr. Trudeau remained as leader and prime minister until the end of a leadership race to replace him. The Globe is not identifying the source because they were not authorized to discuss internal party matters.
However, several MPs have expressed a preference for an interim leader, including Alberta Liberal George Chahal who wrote a letter to the party with that request last week.
Mr. Trudeau has been on vacation in B.C. He returned to work on Friday where he chaired a cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations. He then went to the U.S. embassy in Ottawa to sign the condolence book for former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, who died on Sunday. Mr. Trudeau made no public comments on whether he had arrived at a decision on his future.
Marcel Wieder, a veteran political strategist and adviser to Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, said uncertainty surrounding Mr. Trudeau’s leadership has implications at all levels of government.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, for instance, has been weighing whether to call an early election this year, in part to capitalize on Mr. Trudeau’s unpopularity in the province. Most Liberals belong to both the provincial and federal parties and would likely be called upon to help in any future campaigns and leadership races.
“The landscape is shifting so quickly for Liberals federally but also impacting on provincial too,” Mr. Wieder said.
“When Trudeau makes his decision – or non-decision, whatever it is – it’s going to reverberate around. And that’s the other side of the coin. People are starting to kind of look at it and say ‘Ok, if Trudeau stays, does it mean Ford gets to go early? Can they force an election?’”
Though there is no answer from Mr. Trudeau nor any concrete rules in place for a leadership race, talk of who might replace him and how they’d structure their own campaigns is already happening.
Many Liberal strategists reached by The Globe said they are waiting to see what Mr. Trudeau decides before they line up behind any potential candidates.
But several organizers, as well as MPs, told The Globe that Ms. Freeland is actively building a campaign team, meeting not just with MPs but long-time party organizers and grassroots members. Former B.C. premier Christy Clark is also visibly testing the waters, attending Liberal Party events and taking meetings with senior party figures.
Other potential contenders include cabinet ministers Mélanie Joly, Dominic LeBlanc, Francois-Philippe Champagne and Anita Anand, as well as former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.
A new poll suggests that a different leader could give the Liberals a bump in support, though not enough to outpace the Conservatives, lead by Pierre Poilievre.
The Angus Reid survey, released Friday, suggests that under Mr. Trudeau, the Liberals only have the support of 13 per cent of voters, but those numbers do change if a new leader is in place.
But if Ms. Freeland were to take over, 21 per cent of voters would cast a ballot for the Liberals, the highest number among the leadership candidates tested.
The Conservatives, however, still dominate.
Angus Reid conducted an online survey from Dec. 27 to Tuesday among 2,406 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. Online polls cannot be considered truly random. But for comparison purposes, a sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.