Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves after announcing his resignation as Liberal Leader, at Rideau Cottage in Ottawa, Jan. 6.Justin Tang/The Globe and Mail
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to prorogue Parliament until March 24 – allowing time for the Liberal Party to choose a new leader – sets the stage for a confidence vote shortly after, which appears likely to trigger a spring election campaign.
The return date is just a few days before a key parliamentary deadline of March 26, when the House of Commons is required to vote on what is called interim supply, which provides federal departments with the base funding they need to operate over the first three months of the fiscal year.
Votes on spending items such as supply are considered automatic confidence votes, meaning a government defeat would trigger a federal election.
“There will be confidence votes in March, passing of supply, that will allow Parliament to weigh in on confidence in a way that is entirely in keeping with all the principles of democracy and the workings of our strong institutions,” Mr. Trudeau told reporters Monday as he announced his plan to prorogue Parliament and step down as Liberal Leader and Prime Minister once the party selects a new leader.
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The timing and other details of that leadership race were not immediately announced.
By leaving just a few days between the return of the House of Commons and that deadline, the situation ensures there will be a confidence vote in late March, either on spending or potentially on a motion to approve the Speech from the Throne that follows a prorogation.
The Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and the NDP all said Monday that they will vote to defeat the government. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, whose party has been the most frequent source of parliamentary support for the minority Liberal government, was particularly adamant Monday that the NDP will vote non-confidence in the government on the first available opportunity.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet immediately begin appealing to voters after Justin Trudeau announces his resignation.
The Canadian Press
Political observers say that leaves the new Liberal leader with a near-certain spring campaign.
“Let’s assume that if the government loses a confidence vote at the end of March, then we’re probably looking at a May election. At the moment, the timing seems pretty clear,” says Carleton University political science professor Jonathan Malloy.
An election would solve the immediate concern of funding federal departments. During a campaign and for 60 days after a general election, departments can be funded through a process called Governor-General’s special warrants.
Prorogation does mean that more than two dozen government bills in Parliament are now dead. The bills include C-61, a First Nations Clean Water Act, and C-63, related to online harms. In theory, they could be revived at a later date, but that appears highly unlikely given that all three major opposition parties are vowing to defeat the government.
How prorogation works
Prorogation involves ending one session of Parliament and starting a new one, beginning with a Speech from the Throne that lays out the government’s policy agenda. It is typically used to refresh a government’s plans. It has the effect of terminating all committee work and all legislation that has not yet been passed into law.
When Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament in late 2008 in the face of opposition parties saying they would attempt to defeat the minority government and form an alternative coalition, the move was criticized by some as an inappropriate use of the tool. It ultimately worked for Mr. Harper though, who later survived confidence votes after the then-official opposition Liberal party backed down from plans to topple the Conservatives.
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Mr. Harper also prorogued Parliament in 2009, which the opposition criticized as a move to shut down committee study into the treatment of Afghan detainees.
The Liberal Party’s 2015 platform vowed not to use legislative tricks to avoid scrutiny.
“Stephen Harper has used prorogation to avoid difficult political circumstances. We will not,” the platform said.
Liberals would be reminded of that pledge in the summer of 2020, when Mr. Trudeau prorogued Parliament. The Conservative opposition said the Liberal move was to avoid investigations related to the government’s controversial relationship with the WE charity.
The Chamber of the House of Commons in West Block on Parliament Hill is seen after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he had visited Gov. Gen. Mary Simon to request that she prorogue Parliament, on Jan. 6.Justin Tang/The Globe and Mail
What the experts say
Experts said Monday that Mr. Trudeau’s decision to request a prorogation until late March is acceptable on constitutional grounds. They note that whether Canadians view it as an acceptable political move in the current circumstances is a separate question and will ultimately be up to the electorate to decide.
“From a constitutional perspective, it was appropriate for the Governor-General to accept the request for prorogation,” said University of Ottawa law professor Adam Dodek, who authored a book explaining the Canadian Constitution.
Prof. Dodek said the fact that the length of the prorogation is relatively short and will be quickly followed by a confidence vote limits some of the potential criticism of the move.
“I was concerned that there might be a six-month leadership campaign and a six-month prorogation, and I think that would have been highly problematic from a political perspective, and certainly from a constitutional perspective,” he said.
Carleton University associate professor Philippe Lagassé, who specializes in the Westminster system of parliamentary government, agreed Mr. Trudeau’s move was on solid constitutional ground.
“I think this was a very straightforward prorogation, to be quite honest, given the circumstances,” he said.
Specifically, Prof. Lagassé pointed to the fact that the Trudeau government won a series of confidence votes in December and requested prorogation for the specific reason of allowing the Liberals to select a new leader.
“The core message that I would broadcast to people is if you’re really opposed to this Prime Minister, and you really find that the moment is of such seriousness that this shouldn’t be happening, the issue is with the head of government’s judgment, not the Constitution, right? The Constitution isn’t made, really, to save us from these types of developments.”