U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters during a news conference in the Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House July 21, 2020 in Washington, DC.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Donald Trump’s previous coronavirus press briefings were so disastrous that aides begged him to quit. But with his re-election prospects at risk, the U.S. President decided he had no choice but to return to the White House press briefing room, Tuesday, where he offered a sombre and restrained assessment of a pandemic that, he admitted, “will probably unfortunately get worse before it gets better.”
If Mr. Trump has the discipline to keep himself reined in as he did in Tuesday’s performance, he might yet close the gap between himself and Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
That gap is formidable. Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by almost nine points on the RealClearPolitics compendium of polls. The reason is simple. Most Americans disapprove of the Republican administration’s handling of COVID-19.
Mr. Trump’s reluctance to acknowledge the severity of the pandemic and of the need to reduce transmission by requiring people to shelter in place led him to push state governors to reopen their economies prematurely. Those who complied, especially in the South and Southwest, are now grappling with a resurgence of the disease.
As of Tuesday, four million Americans are known to have acquired COVID-19 and more than 140,000 have died – almost one-quarter of all deaths globally. The virus is raging across Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, as well as elsewhere.
And contrary to the President’s assertion, hospital admissions and deaths in many states are also on the rise.
Mr. Trump’s performance, as well as his actions, have alienated voters. In previous briefings, which were suspended in April, he touted the benefits of hydroxychloroquine, which turned out to offer little or no benefit, and seemed to suggest the disease could be treated with bleach. As his polling began to crater, aides implored the President to stay away from reporters and he eventually complied.
His performance in the interval has been erratic, threatening, self-pitying. Governors have taken to talking with Vice-President Mike Pence when they need something from Washington.
It’s hardly surprising, then, that the polls have swung so decidedly against Mr. Trump, despite the deep polarization that makes swing voters an endangered species. But finally, he seems to have read the memo – something that former national security adviser John Bolton in his tell-all book said Mr. Trump rarely bothered to do – and injected some discipline into both the messaging and the message.
The President’s performance Tuesday was a model (for him) of restraint. He urged youth to “act responsibly” and for people to physically distance. And where that isn’t possible, “get a mask, whether you like the mask or not. They have an impact.”
In the late stages of the 2016 campaign, especially after Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway took charge, Mr. Trump showed he could exercise some measure of self-discipline. He has shaken up his campaign again, and at least for now, that self-discipline has returned, with a press conference in which he stuck to the script, gave reasonably direct answers to questions and wrapped things up in less than half an hour.
Mr. Biden’s lead is hardly insurmountable. Because the electoral college disproportionately favours rural states that have a larger proportion of white voters, the Democrats may need to win the popular vote by as much as four percentage points, nationally, to defeat Mr. Trump.
Even more important, the Democrats need to secure the support of a majority of white suburban voters in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016. Once-bitten-twice-shy progressives remember that Hillary Clinton was heavily favoured to defeat Mr. Trump in 2016 and look how that turned out.
But Mr. Biden has the unique political advantage of Mr. Trump mishandling the greatest combined health and economic crisis the United States has ever faced. So many voters have abandoned him that on the weekend Senator Ted Cruz warned even rock-ribbed-Republican Texas was in play.
To close the gap with Mr. Biden, one of two things has to happen: Mr. Trump must either convince voters that he is, finally, on top of the COVID-19 situation and that things are getting better. Or something must occur that takes voters minds off of the pandemic.
Tuesday was a good first step at tackling the first scenario. The second scenario doesn’t bear contemplation.
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