A majority of Canadians support cancelling a $19-billion contract to buy American warplanes and instead opting for European alternatives, according to a new poll, as relations between Canada and the U.S. continue to sour.
A poll by Nanos Research conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV found 62 per cent of Canadians surveyed support, or somewhat support, scrapping a federal government deal to buy 88 F-35 Lightning planes from U.S. defence contractor Lockheed Martin. It also found 18 per cent oppose, and 3 per cent somewhat oppose, such a measure. Another 17 per cent were undecided.
Shortly after taking office in mid-March, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that he had ordered a review of the F-35 contract and noted that Canada is only contractually obligated to buy 16 of the warplanes.
“Given the geopolitical environment, given the fact that there are options, given the need for value for money, given the possibility of having substantial production of alternative aircraft in Canada – as opposed to sending, as we have been, on average, 80 cents of every dollar to the United States – it’s prudent and in the interest of Canada to review those options,” Mr. Carney said on March 17.
The runner-up in the federal government’s competition for new fighters was the Gripen by Saab AB of Sweden, which had offered to build its warplanes in Canada. Two of the other entrants, the Eurofighter Typhoon consortium – with substantial British participation – and France’s Dassault Rafale, withdrew from the Canadian competition before a final decision was made.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney during his election campaign in Toronto on March 31.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during his election campaign in Saint John, N.B., on March 31.John Morris/Reuters
Since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January, he has threatened and imposed tariffs on Canada, while frequently talking of making the country the “51st state.”
Pollster Nik Nanos said the results of his company’s recent survey are a barometer of Canadian sentiment toward the U.S.
“To me, what this says is there’s licence to have these discussions,” he said. “If you’re in the White House, or if you’re building the F-35, you’re probably thinking, ‘If the Prime Minister puts this on the table, that there’s some significant backing among Canadians to talk about it.‘”
The Nanos survey also asked Canadians whether they support Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre getting a national-security clearance and Mr. Carney, the Liberal Leader, disclosing the value and details of his investments he recently put in a blind trust.
Sixty-six per cent of respondents supported or somewhat supported Mr. Poilievre joining the other federal party leaders in obtaining a national-security clearance so he can receive briefings on foreign interference from Canada’s national spy agency.
In the case of Mr. Carney, 62.5 per cent were strongly or somewhat in favour of him revealing to the public which assets he put in the blind trust in March.
Mr. Nanos said the results show most Canadians aren’t happy with the pair’s decisions on these respective issues to date.
“It’s a majority consistently across all regions and all demographic groups for both of these questions,” he said. “The stakes are so high right now for Canadians, they realistically really want to kick the tires of both of these leaders – they want to know whether there’s anything that would be a flag for either one of them.”
And, as two rival parties pitch voters on similar solutions to national and global problems, the way their two leaders respond to the concerns about the security clearance and nature of the blind trust could have an outsized impact on the election, Mr. Nanos said.
“In a world when there’s blurriness on the policy side for some of the big issues between the two main leaders, stuff like this actually makes a difference,” Mr. Nanos said. “If one of them moved forward on their issue, it would probably put pressure on their opponent to do the same.”
Mr. Poilievre has so far refused to apply for a security clearance, saying the obligations of a clearance would restrict his ability to discuss and hold the government to account on national-security issues. Justice Marie-Josée Hogue, head of the recent public inquiry into foreign interference, urged the Conservative Leader to get the clearance.
Mr. Carney has so far refused to publicly declare the value and details of his holdings, saying he entered political life for the good of the country and not to enrich himself. He recently stepped down as chair of Brookfield Asset Management and the board of media and financial data company Bloomberg LP, and has filed a confidential report to the federal Ethics Commissioner.
This means that Canadians would not know his potential conflicts of interest until after the coming election.
The Nanos poll surveyed 1,264 people from March 28 to 30. It is considered accurate to within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Respondents were asked if they supported: “Canada cancelling its current $19B purchase of a new US-made F-35 fighter jet and buying a European fighter jet instead.” As well, they were asked if they supported “Liberal Leader Mark Carney disclosing the value and details of his financial assets that he put in a blind trust after winning the Liberal leadership” and “Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre getting a national security clearance, as other federal party leaders have done, so he can receive briefings on foreign interference from the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service.”
The full methodology for all surveys can be found at tgam.ca/polls.