Mark Carney walked into the moment that made him the winner.
He was an unelected former central banker waiting in the wings when his predecessor left it too late for the doomed Liberals. He came from outside the government with a resumé fit for an economic crisis just as U.S. President Donald Trump created one with trade-war threats. After 10 days as prime minister, Mr. Carney was the front-runner.
He is elected now. The moment made Mr. Carney prime minister. But it was a murkier mandate than Liberals had expected.
The Liberals tallied a big increase in their vote, but appeared to be falling short of the seat count needed for a majority government – the strong government Mr. Carney had sought to deal with Mr. Trump’s trade war.
Liberals projected to return to power with fourth consecutive mandate
The Conservatives, too, increased their vote in a largely two-horse race that squeezed the Bloc Québecois and NDP. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre ended up beating late-campaign expectations with a strong second place tally of seats that seemed set to force Mr. Carney to seek support in Parliament from smaller parties.
It had been an election like no other. Mr. Carney was uniquely hired for the Trump job. According to polls, Canadians didn’t find him especially relatable. But Mr. Trump and his tariffs turned Canadian politics upside down and more voters picked the confident Mr. Carney to manage the chaos.
That had seemed to be a force pushing everything else aside, including the message Mr. Poilievre had banked on for so long – of discontent with the cost of living and the need for change after a decade of Liberal government. But that discontent showed up again at the end of the campaign.
Now Mr. Carney faces the deeper, thornier problems of governing Canada, the kind that get harder after more than 10 days in power, or six weeks. They don’t get any easier if he’s backed by a minority government seeking support from weakened smaller parties that might feel they can do better in another election a year from now.
House prices are still high and pocketbooks stretched, there is a cohort of alienated young men, issues of unity, and pipelines and potential recession and oh yes, Mr. Trump is still levying tariffs and talking about annexation.
Still, the Liberals were a long way from the crushing loss they expected just four months ago. Mr. Poilievre, the Conservative Leader who let a big lead slip, had increased the Tory seat count and beaten election-night expectations.
The swings in the Canadian electorate in recent months picked Mr. Carney to face them but with a government of unsure strength and solidity.
Mr. Carney had promised results, including sweeping away Canada’s long-standing internal trade barriers by Canada Day and accelerating big projects to diversify markets for clean and conventional energy.
But the immediate mission is still Mr. Trump.
Mr. Carney spoke to Mr. Trump in the first week of the campaign and agreed to launch a comprehensive negotiation on the economic and security relationship between the countries immediately soon after the election.
The Liberal leader’s rhetoric -- asserting that the old relationship with the United States is over – sets the expectation of transformative change.
That’s a big gamble on a sweeping negotiation with a U.S. president who reneged on the USMCA trade deal he signed with Canada in his first term. It’s something his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, wanted to avoid for fear it would raise big new U.S. demands.
Business leaders are already urging Mr. Carney to trim back the scope of talks. Goldy Hyder, the president of the Business Council of Canada, wants a quick nip-and-tuck review to extend the USMCA, not all-in talks that fold military spending into trade issues.
“The first priority is stabilize the relationship with the United States,” Mr. Hyder said.
So far, Mr. Carney has sounded like he views those talks differently, as a way to try to preserve some of Canada’s trading arrangements while the U.S. turns away. His new government, unable to feel secure in power, was supposed to hammer out the strategy this week. Now the Liberal transition teams have to talk about a parliamentary strategy to keep Mr. Carney in power, too.
At the Ottawa junior hockey arena where Liberals watched the results, that left a muted celebration of a win that seemed impossible in January. Mr. Carney has been hired for a mission but with less than a strong mandate. Now more big moments are rushing at Mr. Carney again.