A vehicle passes a pro-separation billboard in Coutts, Alta., Oct. 14.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
A few months ago, I was talking to Michael Wernick, the former clerk of the Privy Council, and we wandered onto the subject of Alberta’s secession vote. Mr. Wernick – now the Jarislowsky Chair in public management at the University of Ottawa – said something that’s been stuck in my brain ever since.
Say the referendum delivers a stout margin for the remain side, as polling has predicted, he said: Then what?
What does the post-referendum Alberta agenda look like? What cards does Premier Danielle Smith play next? What does the federal government do? Where do Albertans and Canadians go from there? It’s not like Quebec separatists shrugged and said, “Well, never mind,” then evaporated after their own referendum defeats, he pointed out.
Right now, the public attention and energy is fixated on what happens Monday at the polls. But as Mr. Wernick pointed out, Oct. 19 is not the end of the story. It’s probably only the prologue.
So I circled back this week to talk about exactly that, with him and several close observers of Alberta politics.
Mr. Wernick believes much of what happens from here depends on Ms. Smith’s next moves, and that the federal government doesn’t need to do much that it’s not already doing. Just carry on governing, he advises, deliver on the memorandum of understanding for the west coast pipeline, put together a budget for November, and wait and see what happens in Alberta provincial politics.
“Deprive the separatist cause of any kind of emotional oxygen. They thrive on humiliation, disrespect, all grievance,” Mr. Wernick said. “So try not to create any, try to mitigate some of the ones that are out there, and try to deal with, ‘Canada’s broken, we need to get out because it’s dysfunctional and doesn’t work.’”
Researchers find uptick in U.S. influence campaigns targeting Alberta referendum as vote looms
And the best way Ottawa can refute that? “Just get stuff done,” he said.
But to former Alberta premier Jason Kenney’s mind, even a thumping victory for the stay side will not clear the toxin that’s been pumped into the provincial bloodstream. He believes that any referendum result is a big, emboldening gain for those who want Alberta to snip itself out of Canada.
“Whatever number the separatists get on Monday will be a massive step forward, compared to their 45-year electoral record of getting their hat handed to them,” he said. Over that period, he said, separatist candidates have averaged a little over one per cent in provincial and federal votes and elected just one MLA.
“I regret that they will infer from any number they get on Monday huge progress, destigmatization of separatism, momentum, and some kind of a weird endorsement for the shambolic campaign,” he said.
But Jared Wesley, a political-science professor at the University of Alberta, thinks the vote margin will matter most for frustrated federalists who feel things are unfair, but don’t want to send a message with a separation vote right now, because of the threat from the U.S.
If it’s a hefty vote to stay, he thinks that group – 25 to 30 per cent of Albertans, based on his research – will no longer see separation as viable and direct their energy elsewhere.
“But the big question looming in the medium- and long-term is what happens when the Trump administration is gone and maybe the situation looks not as risky, but perhaps Alberta’s grievances within Confederation have not been met?” Dr. Wesley said.
The next provincial election must be held within the year, but he said it’s possible Ms. Smith will call a snap election early to seek a new mandate to pursue the priorities from the 10 referendum questions. There are already mutinous rumblings toward her from various factions of the United Conservative Party.
Last week, Ms. Smith declared that if the remain side wins, as long as she’s premier there will not be another referendum – but Dr. Wesley said that decision may be out of her hands. Acourt case involving the Stay Free Alberta petition could compel the government to hold a separation referendum, he pointed out.
“I think she faces the same kind of conundrum that Jason Kenney did just a few years ago,” Dr. Wesley said. “Where she’s got half of her party that is upset that she hasn’t gone far enough, in this case to support separatism, and the other half that feels like she’s gone too far.”
But then there’s the question of whether Albertans can stand to look each other in the eye after Monday.
Feo Snagovsky, an associate professor of political science at the University of Alberta, runs an academic public opinion project called Viewpoint Alberta, together with Dr. Wesley and Michelle Maroto, another U of A professor. Their latest results included 1,600 respondents in the final weeks of the referendum campaign.
One question posed statements such as, “Sometimes the people need to use force to take back their democracies” and “Violence is sometimes an acceptable way to express disagreement with the government.” They asked Albertans to rate their agreement with each, and they found greater acceptance for political violence among separatists than federalists.
So that’s a reason to worry about the separatist side or the possibility of a January 6 reaction in the vote aftermath, said Dr. Snagovsky.
Reason to worry about the federalists came from a question, in which respondents were asked to rank from zero (strongly dislike) to 100 (strongly like) how they feel about certain groups. Of course, separatists and federalists both thought their fellow ideological travellers were great people.
But while separatist feelings toward federalists clustered in the 40-to-60 range that indicates an shrug, federalist feelings toward separatists ballooned at the bottom of the scale, where deep resentment lives.
“It’s something that keeps me up at night,” said Dr. Snagovsky. “It’s a really big problem, because at the end of the day, we have to move forward in society, and you can’t write off a quarter of your population if you’re a federalist.”
Their research shows that many in the separatist movement were activated politically by COVID-19 and vaccination policies. And unlike separatist movements in other jurisdictions that are supported across the political spectrum, in Alberta, it’s a purely far-right phenomenon. Most supported the Freedom Convoy, later they were animated by the issue of trans students and now by Alberta independence.
There is a common ideological thread concerned with personal liberty and the perception that Canada is no longer free, Dr. Snagovsky said. But the deeper connective tissue is the core group of people involved and the strong bonds between them, he said. And that means it’s hard to know where that energy goes from here.
“I think the way to understand Alberta independence is that this is what the far right in Alberta is into right now,” Dr. Snagovsky said. He added, “I don’t think it’s obvious what comes next.”
What is clear, to Mr. Kenney at least, is the lasting scar tissue this vote has stitched deep into the province, and under the surface of business partnerships, friendships, neighbourhoods and families.
“Those divisions, some of them will be permanent. I think time heals wounds, and a lot of people will find ways to put it behind them. But I know I’ve lost friendships over this, and I hope they’ll get repaired,” he said, adding, “that’s why I hope that people turn out and yes, indeed, send a message that we’re done with this, because we don’t want to become like Quebec, where such a divisive issue divides us not just politically, but socially and personally, for the rest of our lives.”