Flags hang on the Office of the Prime Minister and Privy Council building in front of the Centre Block of the Parliament Buildings in Ottawa, on Dec. 18.Patrick Doyle/Reuters
One characteristic of a failed state is that it has no functioning national government. By that standard, Canada is failing pretty badly.
At the very moment when the country faces an existential tariff threat from the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are self-consumed with division, leaving the Prime Minister essentially powerless.
It could be months before we have a fully functioning federal government again. Given what could be coming at us from south of the border, this is disastrous.
Routine operations, of course, continue. Public servants process forms, approve applications, issue passports, send out cheques. People guard the borders and tend the parks. In that sense, the federal government goes on.
But the executive level is frozen, in the wake of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation and her public criticism of Mr. Trudeau.
Even before that resignation, things were increasingly dysfunctional. Many of the key positions in cabinet are vacant, watched over by ministers who already hold other portfolios.
Dominic LeBlanc, this week, served as Minister of Finance, Public Safety, Democratic Institutions and Intergovernmental Affairs – which means he isn’t the real minister of anything at all.
A cabinet shuffle is expected Friday. But the new ministers will likely be out of their portfolios before they are properly in them. That’s because we are probably headed for a federal election sooner rather than later.
Mr. Trudeau may, and should, step down as Liberal Leader. In that case, he would likely have Parliament prorogued until a new leader and prime minister is chosen. The new prime minister would be required to present a Speech from the Throne. The opposition parties would likely vote non-confidence, causing an election.
Or Mr. Trudeau could choose to stay on. At a Liberal holiday party, he described Ms. Freeland’s public repudiation of his leadership as nothing more than a family spat. If he believes that he can keep most of the caucus on board, or at least grudgingly silent, he may try to tough things out.
In that case, the opposition parties will probably bring down the government on a motion of non-confidence soon after the House resumes sitting at the end of January. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh seems finally ready to join with the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois in forcing Mr. Trudeau out.
Or, Mr. Trudeau could call an election himself, choosing to lead his party in search of a new mandate. In all of these scenarios, the newly shuffled cabinet would expire in a few weeks or, at most, a few months.
Whenever and however the election is called, the Liberals face almost certain defeat. Even before Ms. Freeland’s departure, they were more than 20 points behind the Conservatives in popular support. And the result of Monday’s by-election in Cloverdale-Langley City was simply shocking.
That suburban Vancouver riding went Liberal in the 2015 election, Conservative in 2019, and Liberal again in 2021. In the past two elections, the results were very close.
But on Monday, the Conservatives took the seat with 66 per cent of the vote. The Liberals took 16 per cent. Sixteen per cent in a battleground riding! The Grits could be looking at obliteration in the next election.
In the meantime, the premiers met this week to map out their strategy for combatting the tariff threat. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has been arguing Canada’s case in the American press and on CNN.
It appears that the provincial premiers have taken responsibility for conducting Canada’s foreign affairs, in the absence of a functioning federal government.
We can’t go on like this. This is no mere political theatre. The American tariffs, if imposed, could throw thousands of people out of work. The economy could go into a recession.
Mr. Trudeau must surely know that, in the wake of Ms. Freeland’s resignation, the opposition parties are ready to end his government as soon as they get the chance. He must know that, if he leads his party into an election, the Liberals will suffer a humiliating defeat. He must know that every day he stays in office, the federal government remains effectively dysfunctional, even as Mr. Trump lurches closer.
The failing Canadian state must right itself. Mr. Trudeau must act.