Prime Minister Mark Carney walks to board a plane to depart for China at Vancouver International Airport in Richmond, B.C., on Tuesday.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
On his way to Beijing, Prime Minister Mark Carney will have to fly past Japan, a country being bullied by its largest trade partner, China.
It’s something Canadians might want to consider as their Prime Minister heads to Beijing to reset relations. Canada wants to get back on track. But there is always a country on the outs with Beijing.
It’s obvious why Mr. Carney is going. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs mean this country needs to diversify its trade. China could buy more Canadian meat, seafood, oilseeds, oil or natural gas. The possibilities are vast.
In a pivot, Carney seeks to reset relationship with China, build trade ties
So Mr. Carney is off to Beijing, to rebuild relations that turned bitter in 2018, when Canadian authorities arrested a Huawei executive at the request of the U.S. and China responded by throwing two Canadians in jail.
But it’s not the first time a Canadian prime minister has travelled to China in a bid to reset relations. Stephen Harper did it in 2014. Justin Trudeau did it in 2016.
Yet the doors of the big Chinese market have never been thrown wide open to Canadian products. Before, during and after those “reset” efforts, Beijing has from time to time blocked key Canadian products such as canola or pork, either as trade retaliation or political coercion.
If you think Mr. Trump uses trade dependence to bully other countries, wait till you hear about China’s dealings with Australia, South Korea and many other trade partners. Japan is facing a new set of trade tensions with China now because Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in November that Japan could one day be drawn into military confrontation if China used force to take Taiwan.
The view from China: What does Beijing want from Carney’s visit?
Certainly, Mr. Carney has to look for new trade and investment. Maybe it’s better to have two big, capricious trade partners rather than dependence on one.
But China’s track record means Mr. Carney should be seeking something more than the blessing of Chinese leaders to jump-start trade again. He has to be wary of chasing the same old “reset” mirage.
The real goal has to be a more stable relationship, one where each increase in Canadian exports will not just be another weapon for Beijing to use against us. That will be the real trick.
We can expect that Mr. Carney will offer a partial reduction of Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles – or a review that would lead to a reduction later – in exchange for China lifting restrictions on Canadian canola.
Mr. Carney will be keen to provide relief to western farmers. China, also hit by U.S. tariffs, has pressing short-term motivation to find markets for its manufactured goods such as EVs, even at lowered prices, to support an economy with industrial over-capacity.
A deal on Chinese EVs would bring groans from Ontario’s auto sector and the U.S., too. But the fundamental problem with any such deal is that it’s unreliable because of the nature of the partner. In a year or two, China might find a new reason to bar canola products.
Mr. Carney seems to see the problem. He has talked about separating areas where the two countries can cooperate from those where security concerns mean they cannot, such as artificial intelligence, critical minerals and defence. Presumably, he will try to attract Chinese investment to Canada, but not in those areas. Officials briefing reporters on his trip suggested the goal is try to develop a “no-surprises” relationship.
Opinion: This will be the real test of Mark Carney’s visit to China
Still, there will be a political temptation to make concessions to China for the reward of short-term trade benefits – either trade concessions or political ones.
Already, Mr. Carney’s government asked two Liberal MPs to cut short their trip this week to Taiwan – obviously for fear they might say something that upsets the Chinese leadership while the Prime Minister is in Beijing.
In addition, the foreign-agent registry mandated in 2024 after reports of Chinese interference still hasn’t been set up. And Guy Saint-Jacques, a former Canadian ambassador to China, believes it’s being delayed until after the trip.
But the value of a reset with China will be limited if it’s the same-old promise. China is not afraid to punish smaller trade partners such as Canada because there’s always another willing to do business, Mr. Saint-Jacques said. He suggested Canada should take a long-term approach and coordinate a strategy with European and other nations to counter that.
In the meantime, Mr. Carney should be wary of the short-term temptations of a reset.