Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives to scrum with the media at the Liberal Cabinet Retreat in Toronto on Wednesday.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
Mark Carney is heading into an autumn of impatience. His first months in power were full of activity and expectations. Now he can expect mounting pressure to deliver.
In early June, when Mr. Carney met premiers in Saskatoon, there was already hot anticipation about what big initiatives he would identify as projects of national importance. That was too soon. Last week, he announced the well-received appointment of Calgary business executive Dawn Farrell as head of the new Major Projects Office, aimed at speeding up approvals. But that was an office, not projects.
Mr. Carney has promised the first list of projects will come soon. But timelines for results are still going to be his biggest issue.
On Wednesday, the Prime Minister began a two-day huddle with his cabinet ministers and secretaries of state, for what was termed a “planning forum” – rather than Justin Trudeau’s retreats. There have already been months of planning, always accompanied by higher expectations.
The business community liked a lot of Mr. Carney’s early economic pronouncements, the promises to break down internal trade barriers and get major projects rolling.
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The CEO of the Business Council of Canada, Goldy Hyder, said he understands those things can take time. But if the results are not past due, they are coming due. In Mr. Hyder’s estimation, Mr. Carney has to show solid results “by the end of the year.”
So four months.
There are a lot of circles to square. On his way into the cabinet meeting Wednesday, Mr. Carney promised there would be spending cuts in an austerity budget that will nonetheless invest in the future. His government is signalling it wants energy development, and yet, aside from quashing the consumer carbon levy, it hasn’t rewritten climate policy. There’s a big economic agenda, but it is still to come.
Canadians have some understanding that there’s still no trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, despite the missed deadlines. Pollster Jean-Marc Léger, who made a presentation to the cabinet Wednesday, said Canadians now seem to expect there will be U.S. tariffs, and they have moved on to concerns about what the economic situation means for them, about the cost of living and jobs. But the government needs to do something to make it better.
Those major projects were supposed to be a big part of that. Mr. Carney promised to make them happen fast. He also promised that he’d use the levers to “catalyze” private investment in the Canadian economy. The timelines he has to work with mean the catalyzing will probably come second.
The Liberals have a minority government, which tends to have a lifespan of about two years, so they will want the proverbial shovels in the ground before then.
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So the first list of projects isn’t going to include an oil pipeline. It will prioritize building on infrastructure or other projects that already exist in some form. It will favour projects that don’t face opposition from Indigenous communities. And it will lean heavily on public, rather than private-sector, infrastructure projects – the things the government can initiate with public funds. Mr. Carney has already suggested the first list will include port infrastructure.
Mr. Hyder said he’s in favour of focusing on speed now because it will boost business confidence in investing in Canada. “Show us that we can get it done,” he said.
But the real thrust of Mr. Carney’s economic agenda was supposed to be that he would spark private investment that would build the Canadian economy. Many of those projects won’t come as quickly. Expect a first wave heavy on public money, hopefully followed by a pipeline of private projects to come later.
They won’t come just because the PM wants them. Mr. Hyder argues there is still a lot of work needed to make the Canadian investment climate better. “You can’t legislate the deployment of capital,” he said.
In the energy sector, finding a proponent of an oil pipeline to Northern British Columbia means running up against a tanker ban and the emissions cap on producers. Mr. Carney seems unwilling to scrap those things, but willing to make a deal to work around those restrictions if an investor comes forward with a project. That can only add time.
In the spring, it seemed like Mr. Carney was racing against time. There was a flurry of activity and new plans and raised expectations. Now he can expect Canadians to grow impatient for results.