Liberal MP Lori Idlout, who crossed the floor from the NDP, is applauded by her new caucus colleagues in the House of Commons on Wednesday.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
It has felt like a constant stream of floor crossers for months. But this was the big one.
Nunavut MP Lori Idlout’s move to defect from the depleted New Democrats to the governing Liberals has put Prime Minister Mark Carney firmly in charge of the political calendar – and weakened two of his opponents with one blow.
The most obvious significance is that this floor crossing will almost certainly lead to a Liberal majority when three by-elections are held April 13. That will be the case even if the Liberals lose the one race, in Terrebonne, that isn’t in one of their strongholds.
Mr. Carney now has much less reason to gamble on a spring election because he is protected, albeit by a razor-thin margin, from the defeat of his government in the House of Commons. He can decide the timing of the next election.
For the NDP, Ms. Idlout’s defection piles misery on top of distress.
Nunavut MP Lori Idlout cites Northern priorities in joining Liberals
Losing one seat typically isn’t the end of the world, but now they’ve only got six, and Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie MP Alexandre Boulerice is known to be considering a jump to provincial politics.
The NDP has just lost its last Northern MP and might soon lose its only Quebec MP, the last of the New Democrats elected in the 2011 Orange Wave. The NDP would have a hard time keeping Mr. Boulerice’s seat in a by-election and the Liberals have a chance of picking it up.
It all means further shrinking of the NDP presence in federal politics.
In Parliament, they can rarely speak up in Question Period and they aren’t represented in committees. Outside, the NDP leadership race that ends March 29 hasn’t hinted at a revival. Ms. Idlout just effectively declared New Democrats can’t do much for their constituents, anyway.
You could sense the sting when NDP interim leader Don Davies, flanked by remaining MPs, summoned reporters Wednesday to complain that Ms. Idlout ran for election for a party that has a policy against floor crossers. The press conference lasted less than two minutes and Mr. Boulerice walked away as reporters asked if he is leaving next.
Lori Idlout, the newest member of Prime Minister Mark Carney's government, said she quit the NDP caucus because she felt she was 'betraying' her constituents.
The Canadian Press
Ms. Idlout’s floor crossing is certainly one of the most unusual in recent memory. The courtship lasted many months and was no secret. The NDP worked to convince her to stay.
The Nunavut MP had cited funds for Northern housing and $50-million for an Inuit university when she abstained in a vote on the budget in November. When she joined the Liberal caucus Wednesday she said she felt she could better address Northern issues with Mr. Carney’s government than with the NDP – and staying in the rump party would betray her constituents.
There’s a history of non-partisanship and party-blindness in Northern politics, but Ms. Idlout has taken it to unusual lengths. She endorsed the NDP’s left-wing leadership candidate Avi Lewis, but has joined a Liberal Party led by a former investment banker.
That’s not exactly a sign of clear, coherent Liberal principles.
But the argument that Mr. Carney is displaying political cynicism will probably bounce off the Prime Minister. Many people don’t like floor crossing but they rarely punish governments for it.
Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux crosses floor to Liberals
In 2006, newly elected prime minister Stephen Harper lured Liberal MP David Emerson just weeks after he was elected as a Liberal and put him straight into the cabinet. It didn’t hurt Mr. Harper’s fortunes. In 2000, then-prime minister Jean Chrétien brought in four MPs – three former Progressive Conservatives and one New Democrat – shortly before launching an election campaign that increased his majority.
Now, Mr. Carney has both weakened the NDP and dealt another blow to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Unlike the previous three cases, it wasn’t a Conservative MP who crossed the floor. But it still hurts.
The Liberals will in all likelihood soon take control of the levers of Parliament, including Commons committees – and the timing of the next election.
Mr. Poilievre, now clearly behind in the polls, can only hope it doesn’t come soon, but that it doesn’t come so far in the future that antsy Conservative MPs might think about changing their leader.
The weakening of the NDP would weaken his hand, too: Conservatives usually only win elections when the New Democrats are strong.
There have been many floor crossings in Canadian politics. Mr. Carney engineered three before Ms. Idlout. This is the one that will leave a mark.