Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks in Calgary on Nov. 13. Ms. Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding on energy Thursday.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is pretty sure that backbench Liberal MPs from British Columbia are really worried.
Why? “They’ll lose their seats,” she told reporters. “And they like their seats.”
The Ottawa-Alberta memorandum of understanding that has not yet been released − to be signed Thursday by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith − is that bad for the political fortunes of Liberal MPs, Ms. May said on her way into the House of Commons on Tuesday.
Alternatively, it is “meaningless” − that is, if you listen to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. He told the Commons that if Mr. Carney can’t say when construction will start on an oil pipeline to Alberta, then the whole thing is just a “public-relations ploy.”
What whole thing? It’s hard to be too precise, because the details won’t be public till Thursday. But Bloc Québécois MP Patrick Bonin is sure that it means that “Canada is abandoning the fight against climate change.”
Alberta, Saskatchewan ‘secret’ pipeline talks with Ottawa jeopardize economic development, Eby says
Sure, there has been some reporting on the general contents of the MOU, though since it will be words outlining what actual commitments could be struck later, the details will presumably matter. To be fair to Ms. May, she said she actually wants to read the thing before making a definitive judgment, which wasn’t a hurdle for most of her colleagues.
One thing is already certain before the MOU is public: It will draw criticism from all sides.
On Tuesday, Mr. Carney rebuffed some of the criticisms in Question Period, but he was more or less left with arguing that it’s an important step and not the final outcome. The MOU, he said, “creates necessary conditions, but not sufficient conditions, because we believe in co-operative federalism.”
That is an open door for more criticism from all sides.
If there is to be a landmark deal one day that somehow includes federal approval for a new pipeline and more oil development and also an Alberta government commitment to more stringent industrial carbon pricing − it’s going to have to run through a gauntlet of opposition.
Pipeline mania is distracting from what the talks between Ottawa and Alberta could actually achieve
What is already known is that the “memorandum of understanding” won’t be a firm commitment full of specifics.
It is supposed to refer to a political path to a pipeline to northwest B.C. that would have to meet conditions, apparently including local and Indigenous support, and mitigation of the emissions, presumably carbon capture and storage.
But it is not just about a pipeline. It is also supposed to contemplate removing or providing exemptions to federal regulations such as the emissions cap on oil and gas and Clean Electricity Regulations if Alberta makes a long-term commitment to more rigorous industrial carbon pricing.
Still, it is the pipeline to northwest B.C. that is the attention-grabber. That would require lifting a tanker ban off the northern B.C. coast.
B.C. Premier David Eby has already screamed betrayal because he was not included in the talks. He has warned that the idea of lifting the tanker ban threatens an understanding with Coastal First Nations that underpins several development projects.
Liberal MPs say any Alberta-Ottawa pipeline deal must have backing in B.C.
From the other side of the issue, Mr. Poilievre argued that the Prime Minister has all the constitutional jurisdiction he needs to approve a pipeline, so everything else is a “public-relations stunt.”
It’s worth noting here that the Constitution also requires consultation with First Nations. When Stephen Harper’s Conservative government approved the Northern Gateway proposal for a pipeline to northern B.C. in 2014, it attached 209 conditions, and the approval was later quashed by the courts because of inadequate accommodation of Indigenous concerns.
Politically, Mr. Poilievre’s Conservatives, a party with 34 Alberta MPs, are now attacking an agreement that is about to be signed by United Conservative Premier Ms. Smith − which the Premier presumably wants to tout as a victory.
And if Mr. Carney hopes that Ms. Smith’s signature will mean peace in the federation and political dividends for his Liberal government, well, he also has to worry about anger in B.C. and opposition in Quebec.
At any rate, the Bloc seems to think it can win political mileage from it. Mr. Bonin said the Prime Minister is about to “launch a new pipeline for dirty oil from the West.”
Mr. Carney and the Liberals might say that’s too soon − that no pipeline has been approved yet. Mr. Poilievre argues it never will be. And the opposition is already gearing up.