Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks in the Foyer of the House of Commons on Thursday.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
Losing one MP to the Liberals may be regarded as a misfortune. Losing two smacks of carelessness. Now Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative leadership is really in danger. Even a victory in the upcoming leadership review in January won’t necessarily make it safe.
Now, Mr. Poilievre will be looking over his shoulder and into the shadows. Maybe one more of his MPs will defect before party delegates convene in Calgary to vote on his leadership. Or just after he wins. Liberal House Leader Steven MacKinnon declared Friday that there are other dissatisfied Conservative MPs. He might as well have sneaked up behind Mr. Poilievre and shouted “boo!”
That is how things have changed since Thursday night, when Markham-Unionville MP Michael Ma announced he is leaving the Conservatives and crossing the floor to the Liberals.
It was bad enough for Mr. Poilievre when Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor on the day of the federal budget. But then, things seemed to stabilize. Now, Mr. Ma’s defection means Mr. Carney’s Liberal government is just one seat shy of a majority.
One more and the Conservatives can say goodbye to dreams of taking power in a year or two. Mr. Carney could more or less count on remaining Prime Minister till 2029. One more would leave Mr. Poilievre struggling to cling to the opposition benches for nearly four years. And the Liberals, sincerely or not, are talking about more than one.
Party insiders still think Mr. Poilievre will sail through the leadership review vote in Calgary at the end of January. But another defection would have to make it a little more dicey. Even worse for the Conservatives is the prospect that Mr. Poilievre’s victory would be followed by more defections, leaving him weakened.
Potential political disaster is now hanging over Mr. Poilievre, threatening to fall on his head at any time.
Upset Conservatives can complain that that the Liberals who have lured floor-crossers are cynical and self-interested, and that some MPs turn out to be self-centred politicians, but hey, none of those are new variables.
Now that there have been two defections, there is pretty unshakable evidence that something has gone wrong in Mr. Poilievre’s Conservative Party.
His job, after all, is leader, and leading an opposition caucus is, in large part, about keeping it together.
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There have long been tales of Conservative MPs chafing under the heavy-handed diktats of Mr. Poilievre’s leadership, notably those from his former top campaign strategist and constant adviser Jenni Byrne.
Mr. d’Entremont said some of his constituents had told him they didn’t like the party’s leadership style. Mr. Ma said he wanted to “focus on solutions, not division.”
Mr. MacKinnon was happy to tell reporters that he knows there are other Conservative MPs who are unhappy with Mr. Poilievre’s “obstruction” and suggested they look across the aisle in the Commons and see a serious Prime Minister keen to get things done.
There’s often a personal aspect to floor-crossing, when MPs feel out of favour or that their talents aren’t recognized.
And then it could be electoral self-interest. Both Mr. d’Entremont and Mr. Ma hold swing ridings and they might have figured they would be more likely to keep their seats as Liberals. If so, that’s not a good advertisement for Mr. Poilievre’s leadership, either.
When Mr. d’Entremont quit the Tory team five weeks ago, a reporter asked Mr. Poilievre if he would reflect on his leadership and got a flat “no.” He snarked journalists for asking if there was a problem.
But another Conservative MP rumoured to have considered defecting, Matt Jeneroux, suddenly announced he plans to resign from the Commons altogether, and denied in a statement that he had been coerced. Now, Mr. Ma has left, too.
Sure, Mr. Poilievre might hope that the Liberals face something of a backlash for what appears to be an attempt to win a majority by floor-crossing.
But for Mr. Poilievre, the game is now Survivor, and Mr. Carney is flipping players like Boston Rob.
When he casts the blame on Mr. Ma for joining the party he ran against eight months ago, it underlines the question about why.
Now Mr. Poilievre’s leadership is dangling on a nervous string. He can’t be sure that winning a leadership review vote means it’s over. Even then, there will still be the fear that one more defector could spell the end.