Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre during Question Period in the House of Commons on Tuesday.Patrick Doyle/Reuters
It’s always dangerous when a party leader has to reach three different audiences, each grading a different test. That’s what Pierre Poilievre faces Friday night.
At the Conservative convention in Calgary, Mr. Poilievre’s speech will come just before delegates vote on his leadership. That’s normally when a leader plays to the room, hitting the notes the base wants to hear.
Yet outside party rooms, the Conservative Leader has been adjusting his style and tone to look and sound less like a partisan opposition leader and more like a potential prime minister.
Polls keep showing Mark Carney clobbering him on the question of who Canadians prefer as prime minister. There is anxiety about global upheaval, and about U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, and the economy.
Opinion: Can Pierre Poilievre’s conservatism win in our brave new world?
Mr. Poilievre needs to relaunch for the broader public, not just the base. When he delivers his big speech, will he strike Canadians as a leader able to meet the moment?
Of course, one speech won’t change everything. But it’s a bigger stage for him than any since last year’s election campaign. Most Canadians won’t tune in on a Friday night, but the cameras and reporters will be there, as will expectations.
There’s a third audience that Mr. Poilievre can’t forget: his own caucus.
Two of his MPs have defected to the Liberals. There have been regular rumours that others might follow suit. Mr. Carney’s party only needs one more for a majority in the House of Commons – assuming the Liberals win the by-election for the seat vacated by former cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland – that would delay an election for years. The speech that Mr. Poilievre delivers just before he is confirmed as party leader might just tip the scales for the doubters.
The jeopardy attached to it all isn’t a potential loss in the leadership-review vote. Party insiders are confident that Mr. Poilievre is sailing to a win. He has support among party members, and a review campaign managed by former senior Conservative staffer Hamish Marshall has worked to fill the room with friendly delegates. Mr. Poilievre can afford to pay attention to his other audiences. It would be a mistake to ignore them.
Andrew Coyne: Carney has solidified the Liberal base, but he hasn’t expanded it
The real challenges to Mr. Poilievre’s leadership and ambitions will come after the convention.
It’s not a policy question that’s at play. There’s no yawning ideological divide inside today’s Conservative Party, despite the never-over convention debates on issues such as abortion. Polls don’t put Conservatives wildly offside with the public on issues.
It’s Mr. Poilievre that is the issue.
He built up support among younger Canadians when Justin Trudeau was his opponent, wearing T-shirts and revving up crowds at rallies with slogans. But he lost to Mr. Carney because many voters didn’t see him as a prime minister.
Now, he sticks to suits and ties and frames his videos in front of a bookcase. He and his entourage once squabbled with more than one Conservative premier. This week, he wrote a letter pledging to work with Liberals in Parliament.
Mr. Poilievre clearly loved being the rally leader. He enjoyed his slogans, his punch-in-the-face rhetoric and the promise to serve a comeuppance to the Liberals. Rally-goers loved it, too. On Friday, he needs to be more prime ministerial than rally leader.
There are some pretty strong clues about the content of the speech he will give. He issued a video last week – in reaction to Mr. Carney’s speech in Davos – that centred on the critique that the Prime Minister keeps crying crisis, but is failing to act quickly to address it.
John Turley-Ewart: Can Pierre Poilievre, all politics and no business, ever be prime minister?
The video included not only his long-time demand to deregulate the oil industry and approve a pipeline – none has yet been officially proposed – but to act faster to lower home prices, reduce interprovincial trade barriers, protect intellectual property and build up the military, notably in the North.
In Parliament, Conservative MPs have attacked the government over food inflation, the affordability theme that has helped build a new Conservative support base among younger, struggling working and middle-class voters.
That leaves plenty of room for takedowns of the Liberals. But will it have sweep? Will it lend gravitas to a political leader whose personal poll ratings point to that as his missing ingredient? Will it be the prime ministerial pivot he needs?
Beyond the review vote, Mr. Poilievre’s leadership will still need rebuilding.