While Chrystia Freeland is set to unveil the fall economic statement Monday, the Prime Minister is in discussions to try to recruit former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney to replace her – perhaps as soon as Wednesday. Ms. Freeland holds a news conference at the National Press Theatre in Ottawa, on Dec. 3.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
Eight months ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s strategists set an internal goal: gain five percentage points in opinion polls come July, 2024. Instead, they went nowhere.
The plan back then was to take Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s April budget, purportedly focused on Canadians under 40, and flog it aggressively to move the Liberals back into a competitive race with the Conservatives.
That didn’t work, so after the summer, a lot of Liberals started placing hope that the fall economic statement would be a springboard that could bring the party back into a competitive position.
But while Ms. Freeland is set to unveil that statement Monday, the Prime Minister is in discussions to try to recruit former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney to replace her – perhaps as soon as Wednesday.
Everything has a short life span now.
Last month, the persistent search for a Liberal bounce in opinion polls brought the announcement of a two-month GST holiday on kids’ clothes, beer and various other goodies. It didn’t move the needle.
Trudeau to lose Housing Minister Sean Fraser amid plan for cabinet shakeup, push to recruit Carney
Now, the point person for the Liberals nearly-last-chance fiscal blueprint might well deliver it as her last act before being shuffled on. That’s hardly the hallmark of a carefully-constructed plan. Mr. Trudeau’s government keeps burning through nearly-last chances and moving on to the next one.
In the meantime, Ms. Freeland has a lot to pack into a fall update.
She has already signalled that she is going to break the promise she made eight months ago to keep the deficit from growing.
Now, she faces the multiple demand of doing something popular for voters who feel financially squeezed, spending to bolster border security to assuage U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s demands and, above all, preparing for tariffs he has threatened and the damaging recession that would cause.
After that, she’ll be moved into a new job by mid-week – if all goes to Mr. Trudeau’s plan.
The Prime Minister has tried more than once to recruit Mr. Carney. But The Globe and Mail has reported that Mr. Trudeau has made new efforts recently and set a tentative plan for cabinet shuffle on Wednesday if Mr. Carney accepts.
It’s hardly a glittering offer now. Mr. Carney has declined before, and now he has watched two of Mr. Trudeau’s finance ministers twist in the wind amid public reports that their days in the post are numbered.
The Liberals are 19 percentage points behind the Conservatives in the most recent Nanos Research poll, and Mr. Trudeau’s government will be in regular danger of defeat in the House of Commons as early as February. His next finance minister might never pass a budget. Why would Mr. Carney sign on?
The real lure of Mr. Trudeau’s offer, in fact, is a chance to be at the centre of a crisis. If he takes on the finance portfolio, it won’t be because he has some magical method of making the deficit vanish. The task would be to steer the Canadian economy through the threat of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, investor uncertainty and potential recession.
Mr. Carney wants to be prime minister some day, and he has worked through chaotic disruptions before, as Canada’s top central banker during the financial crisis of 2008 and Britain’s during Brexit. Those are the credentials Mr. Trudeau wants in his cabinet right now.
That’s the current plan, anyway. Things in the Liberal government tend to be temporary now.
Since July, Mr. Trudeau has lost a cabinet minister every two months: his friend, Seamus O’Regan; his Quebec lieutenant, Pablo Rodriguez; and his Alberta minister, Randy Boissonnault.
The Prime Minister hasn’t yet replaced the latter two, handing major portfolios of transport and employment to ministers who already had their own, in part because once a shuffle is done, dozens of restless backbenchers will realize once and for all that they will never be in cabinet.
At that point, the calls for Mr. Trudeau to step down might get louder. If Mr. Carney doesn’t join the government, the shuffle might be put off till the new year.
But today, it’s Ms. Freeland’s task to present the blueprint for guiding Canada’s economy, and the Liberals’ latest last-ditch hope for political revival. It probably won’t be long till the next one.