On Wednesday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre forgot to move the main amendment criticizing the budget.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
It wasn’t the balance of voting power in the Commons that shifted when MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals this week. It was the political dynamics.
The threat of more defections could deflate Pierre Poilievre’s swagger.
The first order of parliamentary business on the day after the budget is for the Leader of the Opposition to get up, make a speech in reply to the government’s budget motion and then move the main amendment criticizing the budget and proposing to alter it.
But on Wednesday, Mr. Poilievre, a 21-year veteran of the House of Commons in his fourth year as Opposition Leader, forgot to move his amendment. That allowed the Bloc Québécois to step in to move the main amendment, relegating the Conservatives to the sub-amendment that is usually left to the third party.
That’s an embarrassing lapse. Mr. Poilievre’s mind must have been on other things. Was he rattled?
Perhaps the Conservative Leader couldn’t stop thinking about the images of Prime Minister Mark Carney as he walked Mr. d’Entremont into the Liberal caucus room on Wednesday morning.
Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with MP Chris d'Entremont, who crossed the floor from Conservative caucus to join the Liberals, to a meeting of the Liberal caucus on Parliament Hill on Wednesday.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
It’s not a change in numbers in the Commons that makes all the difference. Not yet. Mr. Carney’s Liberals are still two votes short of a majority.
It’s the threat of more. Mr. d’Entremont suggested there are others thinking of crossing the floor. One of those rumoured to be considering it was Edmonton Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux, who, in a twist, abruptly resigned his seat Thursday.
It was not another defection, but more chaos in Mr. Poilievre’s caucus.
Rumours of defections, brewing for a while, had briefly flared up to a Parliament Hill frenzy just over two weeks ago. Conservative MPs and staffers had searched behind cupboards and doors for potential floor-crossers before warily presuming none of the disgruntled were going just yet. Probably.
Then Mr. d’Entremont broke his news. And suggested others – plural – might follow.
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That suggests there’s potentially another defection coming that would make Mr. Poilievre look weaker. Perhaps two more, enough to give the Liberals a coveted majority.
For the Conservative Leader, that’s very dangerous indeed.
A big part of his appeal to his supporters – both the hard-core Conservative base and a newer, younger, predominantly male crowd that flocks to his rallies – has been his hard-driving promise to not just beat the Liberals, but beat them down. Last year, he taunted then-prime-minister Justin Trudeau daily to call an election, and mocked the NDP and the Bloc for failing to force one.
That Pierre Poilievre went missing for a while, chastened by the loss of the spring election to Mr. Carney, and the loss of his own seat. But Mr. Poilievre has been bringing that guy back this fall.
The Conservative Leader has not been demanding an immediate election, but he is sure trying to look like he’s not afraid of fighting one soon. Momentary postelection moderation has given way to the return of the red-hot, fight-everything-Liberal blasts.
The own-the-Libs swagger is part of who he is. And his brand.
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But it is hard to posture like you’re owning the Libs if they keep smuggling away your MPs. Worse: If the Liberals recruit two more and gain a parliamentary majority, Mr. Poilievre will go from someone who might be prime minister next year to someone destined to warm the opposition benches till 2029. That’s not what supporters who chose him as leader in 2022 signed up for.
In the meantime, Mr. Poilievre doesn’t know for sure if there will be another defection tomorrow. Or the day before a party vote on his leadership in January.
Those are cynical political games that drive some to fits of anger. Usually it is only members of the party that loses an MP that really get steamed.
It is often hard for a floor-crossing MP to get re-elected. After all, a plurality of the voters had most recently voted for the party that they are leaving.
In the current case, the Liberals are getting so close to a majority that it could encourage more to take that risk. In a minority Parliament, a general election could come any time. With two more defectors, it probably won’t come till 2029.
Maybe none of that will happen. But the threat of it is hanging over Mr. Poilievre.