Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves a hotel in West Palm Beach, after a meeting with U.S. president-elect Donald Trump last night at Trump's residences of Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on Nov. 30.Carlos Barria/Reuters
We don’t know exactly what was said by U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during their Friday dinner at Mar-a-Lago, but we can take a pretty good guess.
Mr. Trump talked, and talked, and talked. About his victory in the election, the most amazing political win of all time. About how the Democrats staged a coup by replacing President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris, but it didn’t matter because she was so dumb (she’s not) and the people love him. About how his second term would be the greatest government of any country anywhere in the history of the world. And Mr. Trudeau smiled, nodded and said nothing.
At times, the monologue veered into how Americans had been played for suckers by their so-called allies. About the millions of undocumented immigrants who flooded across the border, bringing crime and stealing jobs. About trade deals – presumably including the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA, which he signed in his first term – that ripped off American workers. About all the fentanyl that was coming across the border. About NATO still shirking on defence. And about how all that was about to change.
Here Mr. Trudeau might have tried to get in a few words: about the importance to the American economy of trade with Canada, of Canada’s willingness to work closely with the United States to police the border and defend the continent, about … but it probably went no farther than that. He was lucky if he got that much in during the three-hour meal.
Still, it was a good night.
We are in an extraordinarily difficult position, as talks begin to convince the president-elect not to impose a 25-per-cent tariff on imports from Canada the day he takes office. If those tariffs arrive on Jan. 20, Canada’s recession begins Jan. 21.
We have a little over seven weeks in which to convince the incoming administration to hold off on the tariff while negotiations continue. But even that scenario is grim.
Mr. Trudeau is the lamest of ducks – far behind in the polls, facing an election in months that he is likely to lose. He is playing a very weak hand. And Mr. Trump is an expert at exploiting weakness.
But since Mr. Trudeau refuses to call an election now and give a new government a fresh mandate, and since he refuses to step aside as his party’s leader, the approach he is taking is the right one.
Meet with the president-elect to clear the air. Get him to forget about all the past tensions. Water under the bridge and all that. Show admiration for the Great Man.
Meanwhile, get the negotiations going. In that respect, who was not at the table mattered as much as who was at it. Who was talking with whom before, during or after the meal? Who agreed to talk again on Monday?
Chrystia Freeland as Foreign Minister was pivotal in negotiating CUSMA. What will her role be as Finance Minister?
What about Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly? She has none of the heft that Ms. Freeland commanded. What will be her role?
Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc was at the dinner. He is a trusted friend of Mr. Trudeau. Is he going to lead the border talks? Will there be a cabinet shuffle to put in place the negotiating team? Did I mention the inauguration is in 51 days?
There are voices saying Canada should hang tough, that the tariffs violate CUSMA and international law, that American business interests will pressure the incoming administration to stand down, that we must not bend our knee to this wild-brained bully.
No. Strength does not lie in defiance. Strength lies in defending Canada’s interests at the negotiating table. Strength lies in finding solutions.
Mr. Trudeau has done everything right so far. He has met with the premiers, and then went to Florida to meet with Mr. Trump. The Canadian team reportedly left the dinner feeling optimistic. Mr. Trump posted Saturday that the evening went well: “Trudeau has made a commitment to work with us,” he said.
That’s good. Now Canadians need to see a clear and effective strategy, and a coherent team, in place to prevent a January trade apocalypse.
Fifty-one days.