There have been signs that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals are making headway in courting some of the middle ground between Liberals and Conservatives.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
At a steakhouse on Avenue Road in Toronto earlier this month, a number of conservatives turned up for a Liberal MP’s fundraiser. One was John Tory, the former Toronto mayor and onetime leader of Ontario Progressive Conservatives.
It was perhaps not surprising that Mr. Tory was at this fundraiser, given that the Liberal MP in the Eglinton-Lawrence riding, Vince Gasparro, was his deputy chief of staff at City Hall. In fact, Mr. Tory was the marquee special guest.
Mr. Tory noted that it was the first time he’d ever been to a Liberal Party fundraiser. And then he remarked that he had considered himself a Progressive Conservative, and that there aren’t many Progressive Conservatives left in the federal Conservative Party.
That’s one person’s opinion, and Mr. Tory has been out of the world of federal and provincial partisan politics since 2014, when he was elected mayor of Toronto – a post he is considering seeking again.
But Mr. Tory had been in PC circles for most of his adult life, as an aide to premier Bill Davis in the 1980s, then campaign chair for prime minister Brian Mulroney, and leader of the Ontario party from 2004 to 2009.
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The room he spoke to included a number of supporters and donors to conservative political parties. Two or three noted to attendees that they had supported the campaign of provincial Progressive Conservative Michelle Cooper when she beat Mr. Gasparro in the Ontario provincial election two months before the federal vote, according to two people who attended.
The well-heeled group of perhaps 80 at a fundraiser that raised six figures wasn’t exactly everyday Ontario, but it is in some ways representative of a danger for Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservative Party.
There have been signs that Mark Carney’s Liberals are making headway in courting some of the purple middle ground between red Liberals and blue Conservatives.
The most obvious was Nova Scotia Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont’s move to cross the floor to the Liberals, arguing that as a Red Tory he is no longer comfortable in Mr. Poilievre’s party.
On the day that the Liberal government faced the key confidence vote on the federal budget, Doug Ford offered no echo of Mr. Poilievre’s criticisms. Instead, he effectively endorsed Mr. Carney’s fiscal policy. “It’s in the best interests of the country to make sure we pass this budget,” the Ontario Premier said.
It’s no secret that there was no special love between Mr. Poilievre’s inner circle and Mr. Ford’s Ontario PCs during the past federal election.
What really matters for federal Conservatives is that they aren’t winning as broad a set of supporters in Ontario as Mr. Ford’s party, which now hovers near the 50-per-cent mark in most opinion polls. The federal Conservatives are at 41.7 per cent in Ontario in the most recent Nanos Research tracking poll.
That would have been considered strong Conservative support in the past. Since there is now a mostly two-horse race with Mr. Carney’s Liberals, that’s a telling second best. Perhaps enough to decide a close election.
It’s not as simple as the federal Conservatives losing Progressives to a more-centrist Liberal Party under Mr. Carney. Mr. Poilievre built a lead among voters under 40 frustrated by the cost of living and high price of homes. But the Conservatives are losing among voters over 50. Mr. Ford isn’t. Polling for Mr. Ford’s party has found that a quarter or more of Ontario PC supporters lean to Mr. Carney’s Liberals.
They haven’t all converted. Mr. Tory hasn’t become a Liberal. Reached by The Globe and Mail, he said he headlined the fundraiser to support a former staffer. He confirmed the remarks he had made, saying “there aren’t many people left who would describe themselves as Progressive Conservatives” in Mr. Poilievre’s party. Mr. Tory declined to say much more. “I don’t want to stir up trouble,” he said.
Some who attended Mr. Gasparro’s fundraiser are provincial PCs donating to a federal Liberal MP. The Globe is not naming two attendees who recounted the events of the fundraiser so they could share details freely.
Mr. Gasparro said in an e-mail that he has campaigned to win over Progressive Conservatives and disaffected New Democrats, and the fundraiser was an indication of support he has built in his constituency – and that “the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney is a big-tent party.”
That wasn’t true a year ago. Mr. Poilievre’s Conservatives lost the spring election when it turned into a two-horse race and the NDP collapsed.
Now, the Liberals are courting the middle ground the Conservatives can’t afford to lose.