Some would-be sellers hold off on listing during the winter months, hoping to attract more interest.Sisoje/iStockPhoto / Getty Images
Fresh listings in the Toronto real estate market have been trickling out slowly in February as successive blasts of winter made moving around the city a challenge.
Sellers who want to attract a crowd of house hunters tend to hold off until the mounds of snow on narrow side streets diminish.
But that scarce supply has worked in favour of some homeowners who set an attention-grabbing asking price and a date for reviewing offers, says Nutan Brown, real estate agent with Royal LePage Terrequity Realty.
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In some cases, homes listed with an asking price of $999,000 have sold for prices in the $1.2-million and $1.3-million range.
Ms. Brown notes that such bidding contests are sporadic in a market that remains slow overall. Often, buyers refuse to compete.
“It has been a real roller coaster,” she says of fickle buyers. “When they have choice, they’re not willing to play that game.”
The slow start to 2026 is a continuation of the doldrums that took hold in late 2025. The early fall market showed some momentum, she says, but sales and showings dropped off in the second half of November.
“Things are quite a bit off from where they should be,” says Ms. Brown. “Buyers are not feeling that urgency.”
She points to a three-bedroom detached house she listed in mid-November with an asking price of $1.599-million.
The sellers of 59 Ostend Ave. have received a couple of lowball offers but are holding out for better value, said real estate agent Nutan Brown.Geoff Parkin/Geoff Parkin/GP Photo
The home at 59 Ostend Ave. in Swansea has been in the same family for years, and many original details – such as wood trim, leaded glass windows and a traditional front porch – are unchanged.
The area near Bloor Street West and Windermere Avenue tends to be popular with young families, and Ms. Brown was confident the home would be spoken for within a couple of weeks. Instead, showings fell off.
“We weren’t getting the traction I thought we would get, and then something just stalled,” she says.
The sellers have received a couple of lowball offers, but they have been too far off the mark, according to Ms. Brown. The homeowners are patient and willing to negotiate, she adds.
“We feel like there’s value there.”
Weakness in the Greater Toronto Area stems from a combination of unaffordability, ongoing trade tensions with the United States and a significant slowdown in population growth, according to Daren King, senior economist at the National Bank of Canada.
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In December, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index for Toronto slipped 0.7 per cent, bringing the cumulative drop since December, 2024, to 6.4 per cent.
In Ms. Brown’s view, some potential buyers feel less pressure to commit when prices are on the decline. She adds, however, that a market with buyers lingering on the sidelines also has lots of pent-up demand.
She recalls the 2008 financial crisis, when the market came to a standstill for several months and then suddenly turned upwards.
She adds that 2026 will be a challenging year for many homeowners who purchased during a period of ultralow interest rates in 2021 and need to renew their mortgage as the five-year term winds down.
Ms. Brown has not seen a large number of listings from sellers in distress, but more properties may land on the market if homeowners are struggling.
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Victor Tran, a mortgage and real estate expert for Rates.ca, says much of his current business comes from homeowners renewing their loans.
The sales side remains quiet, he says, pointing to inventory piling up, the spring market around the corner, and falling values.
“No one has any urgent need to move,” he said.
Mr. Tran is working with one set of clients who are looking for a condo unit. They were interested in a corner unit in the Fort York area with an asking price of $825,000, but soon after the property hit the market, two bidders stepped up and the unit sold conditionally.
Mr. Tran says his clients were surprised the unit went so quickly, but they are cautious and reluctant to submit a firm offer. They were also wary of budgeting for a monthly maintenance fee.
“It’s scary for a lot of people to take on debt,” he said.
Mortgage delinquencies are on the rise, Mr. Tran notes, and some aspiring buyers figure an increasing number of properties will be sold by the lender under “power of sale” as a result. Those buyers are betting they can land a better deal by waiting, he adds.
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Mr. Tran says the renewal portion of his business is busy these days as people who purchased during the hectic market of 2021 come to the end of five-year terms. Homeowners who signed for rates as low as 1.5 per cent now face renewing their loan at rates that have doubled or tripled.
Among his clients, monthly mortgage payments typically jump by $400 or $500, but most of the homeowners can handle the bump in payments.
“They knew this moment would come. They have been planning and budgeting for this.”
Some clients switch banks, he says, adding that homeowners who plan to refinance or renew with a different lender need to start looking at their options in advance.
Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate steady at 2.25 per cent.
Many consumers are keeping an eye on rates for fixed-term mortgages, which have remained sticky in the range around four per cent to 4.5 per cent, Mr. Tran says.
Looking ahead, Mr. Tran says there is a cohort of potential buyers who have set aside a solid down payment and plan to take their time looking for the right opportunity
Meanwhile, uncertainty continues to surround employment, interest rates and home prices.
“No one knows if this is truly the bottom or not.”