Last November, the owners of a unit at 170 Bayview Ave. in Toronto spoke to agent Robin Pope about selling and he estimated a list price of about $820,000, based on the price of similar units.Pope Real Estate Ltd.
Buyers and sellers in the Toronto-area housing market are navigating a rocky landscape this fall as prices slide and strategies shift.
Even experienced homeowners planning to trade up or down are tripped up by tighter lending standards in the current environment.
Robin Pope, broker with Pope Real Estate, says the tough market is baffling for buyers and disheartening for sellers.
“The condo market is a bit of a dumpster fire,” says Mr. Pope, noting there is an abundance of inventory and few buyers.
“We thought buyers were scarce last year – until we learned the true meaning of scarcity this year.”
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Sales in the condo segment in the core 416 area code rose 7.4 per cent in September compared with September, 2024.
Despite the improvement, Mr. Pope doesn’t see the catalyst for a strong rebound.
“It’s like finding a person unconscious on the road and you can barely find a pulse,” he says. “Now that you can find a pulse, that doesn’t mean they’re going to survive the ride to the hospital.”
Mr. Pope recently sold a two-bedroom, two-bathroom unit near Corktown Commons for $733,000 after setting an asking price of $749,900 in late August.
The owners of unit 2809 at 170 Bayview Ave. first spoke to Mr. Pope about selling last November, when they began looking at houses. At the time, he estimated a list price of about $820,000 after similar units sold in the $810,000 to $815,000 range.
The owners decided to search for their next property before selling and eventually purchased a house in late spring.
“When she reached out again in June, I had to let her know prices had come down,” he says.
Still, he figured the River City unit, with 770 square feet of living space, high ceilings and a south-facing balcony with views of Lake Ontario and the Toronto Islands, would appeal to buyers.
“The primary bedroom has a breathtaking, postcard view of the city,” he says. “Most people want that panoramic view.”
When the seller reached out again in June about selling the unit, Mr. Pope had to tell her that prices had come down. The unit later sold for $733,000.Pope Real Estate Ltd.
A unit on a lower floor had recently sold conditionally after it was listed with an asking price around the $750,000 mark. Mr. Pope figured his client’s view was superior, but he was curious to know the sale price of the other unit because it would become the new benchmark in the building.
In the meantime, an offer for Mr. Pope’s clients came in far below asking. After some wrangling, the two sides arrived at a deal for $733,000.
Soon after, Mr. Pope learned that the deal for the competing unit had firmed up at $717,500.
“The entire time, we didn’t know what it had sold for, and it certainly would have had an impact on our price.”
Mr. Pope figures his clients fetched approximately $15,000 more partly because of the view, but he stresses that it’s also more important than ever before that properties be in pristine condition when they hit the market.
“We did everything we could to make it shine. There was really nothing for the buyer to do but move in and drop their furniture.”
In the downtown core, condo towers are filled with nearly identical units that trade like commodities. Traditionally, prices have held up better for the unique condos.
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Mr. Pope says showings have been more lively at 781 King St. W., where he listed a two-level hard loft with an asking price of $1,099,990.
The one-bedroom unit has a balcony, which is unusual for a converted factory.
The authentic post-and-beam construction in a brick building where workers in the early 1900s crafted harnesses for horses is a draw for buyers because hard lofts are relatively rare.
“Those buildings you can count on one hand in the city,” he says.
The owner of No. 211 at Gotham Vintage Lofts purchased the 1,052-square-foot unit three years ago for $1.05-million, then undertook a substantial renovation, he says.
The average price of a condo in the 416 area code dipped 3.8 per cent in September from the same month last year.
A few floors up, Unit 501 recently sold for $1.025-million after it was listed with an asking price of $1,064,900.
“It’s not your typical condo,” Mr. Pope says of the former factory. “It’s a niche.”
Single-family homes are trading more briskly than condos, Mr. Pope says, but both areas of the market are underperforming.
The average price of a condo in the 416 area code fell 3.8 per cent in September from the same month in 2024.Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press
Mr. Pope senses that buyers remain nervous because of the continuing political and economic uncertainty in the world.
“It’s almost overwhelming how much change can happen over a short period of time.”
Mortgage broker Leah Zlatkin, an expert for LowestRates.ca, cautions that even experienced homeowners can make mistakes in the current challenging environment.
Some are trading up, while others are downsizing, she notes, but they need to be wary of the fine print in their existing mortgage agreement.
Breaking a mortgage early can trigger substantial penalties, Ms. Zlatkin says in her guidance to buyers. In some cases, the fees mount up to tens of thousands of dollars, yet many buyers only realize this fact when it’s too late.
At the same time, some homeowners expect to have more equity than they really do – especially in a market where prices have dipped.
In many cases today, rates are higher, budgets are tight and lenders are imposing stricter standards before borrowers can qualify for a mortgage.
“Second-time buyers often think they know the ropes, but the market has shifted so dramatically since their last move that the old playbook no longer works,” according to Ms. Zlatkin.
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Mr. Pope is working with one set of buyers looking for a semi-detached house in the $850,000 to $1-million range in Aurora or Newmarket.
The average price of a semi in the suburban 905 portion of the Greater Toronto Area dropped 6.1 per cent last month compared with the same month last year.
Mr. Pope recently accompanied the couple to see a property listed in late June for $1,248,000. The house was a pleasant semi backing onto a park, he says, but after three weeks without a sale, the sellers dropped the price to $999,000.
That type of eye-catching price can often spark a bidding contest, but the sellers did not set a date for reviewing offers.
Mr. Pope’s clients liked the house, and it was within their budget, but comparable properties in the area had been selling around the $1.1-million mark or slightly higher.
Mr. Pope learned from the listing agent that the sellers were indeed hoping for much more than their new asking price.
An artificially low asking price with no offer deadline is frustrating to potential buyers, he says, because they don’t understand the seller’s expectations.
Setting a low asking price and an offer date is a very successful tactic when house hunters are willing to compete, he says, but the current market is tilted strongly in favour of buyers.
“To use a strategy that was popular in a hot seller’s market is bewildering to a lot of buyers. I don’t think buyers have patience for that right now.”
Just before the Thanksgiving weekend, the listing agent raised the price by nearly $200,000 to $1,195,000.
The price hike came after a comparable semi changed hands at $1.094-million.
“If anything, buyers want to pay less than the most recent sale, not more,” Mr. Pope says.
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The couple is continuing their search, and Mr. Pope recently accompanied them to see a three-bedroom semi in Aurora with an asking price of $898,000 and an offer deadline.
The buyers went for a second look but decided against submitting a bid, Mr. Pope says.
He later learned that the sellers received two offers but rejected them both.
The following day, the home at 112 October Lane was relisted with an asking price of $1.13-million.
“It’s very confusing to buyers – particularly buyers that are buying for the very first time.”
The veteran agent says the current market conditions remind him of the bleak downturn in the 1990s. The 2008 financial crisis felt like a speed bump in comparison, he adds.
Buyers are more cautious today, and they should be, he adds.
“There’s no reason in this market to accept any risks.”