Sluggish condo sales are carrying over from one month into the next.Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press
As the Toronto-area condo segment approaches four years of declining sales, buyers and sellers have absorbed enough data to understand today’s going rate.
In some cases, condo units are changing hands at prices last seen in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
“This is where people are willing to write offers,” said Christopher Bibby, broker with Re/Max Hallmark Bibby Group Realty.
Showings have picked up in central Toronto, said Mr. Bibby, who had a burst of sales in February he labels “peculiar.”
A stalled Toronto condo project gets new leadership
“There was a time when people just didn’t want to transact,” he said. “Maybe we’re finally hitting a price level that’s getting some engagement.”
New and active listings in the Greater Toronto Area dipped in the opening weeks of 2026 from the same time last year while “days on market” lengthened.
One reason inventory shrank may be that some would-be sellers are not refreshing their listings or launching new ones during the current malaise, Mr. Bibby explained.
The situation is especially tough for distressed investors trying to exit from their micro units in downtown towers flooded with supply, he says.
“For obvious reasons, it’s messy.”
House hunter’s dilemma: Buy, or wait to see if prices fall some more
Daren King, senior economist with National Bank of Canada, sees little urgency among buyers in all segments of the Toronto area market as sluggish sales one month carry into the next.
“We’ve been quite surprised by the lack of momentum,” said Mr. King. “Maybe because we’re seeing price decreases. Nobody wants to catch a falling knife.”
Transactions per household are hovering at historically low levels, he said, adding that such weak activity is more in keeping with the 2008 financial crisis and the start of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle in 2023.
“It’s not only the condo market that’s in bad shape in Toronto – it’s the entire market,” said Mr. King.
The economist expects the decline in prices to continue for the first half of the year, with the potential for a moderate recovery in the second half.
That improvement depends on the health of the Ontario labour market, the success of the renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, and the actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, he cautions.
“Obviously, if you don’t have a job, you can’t buy a house.”
The condo segment will likely lag the recovery in single-family home prices, he predicts.
Middle East attacks hurting investment thesis for Canadians, wealthy foreigners
For jittery buyers, the war in the Middle East adds to the uncertainty.
National Bank of Canada deputy chief economist Matthieu Arseneau and senior economist Alexandra Ducharme note that the Canadian economy surprised on the downside in the fourth quarter of last year.
The economy slid at an annualized rate of 0.6 per cent in the quarter, which was below the Bank of Canada’s forecast, the economists note, but they do not expect the central bank to change its view on the appropriate level for interest rates at this time.
On Jan. 28, the rate-setting committee announced it was holding the central bank’s key interest rate at 2.25 per cent.
One trend Mr. Bibby sees emerging in the current environment is that condo buyers are more willing to look at a diverse mix of property types and neighbourhoods than they were during the heated markets of the past.
He points to one couple who targeted vibrant Kensington Market and its industrial lofts for their search, then ended up purchasing in a staid Bay Street high-rise.
“The Kensington buyer is not a Bay Street buyer in normal circumstances,” he says. “They are shopping for value. They say, ‘I’m willing to live anywhere, but where are the deals?’”
One agent said he's noticed buyers are open to different property types right now.The Print Market
In the past, some buyers would covet the Candy Factory or Chocolate Factory lofts of Queen Street West, for example, and pounce as soon as a listing appeared.
He recently pointed out to one pair looking to spend more than $1-million that they might have the opportunity to nab a unit in an iconic building during the current slowdown. The buyers countered that they could consider a townhouse or a semi with that budget.
“I think everyone’s being very cautious and curious,” Mr. Bibby said. “They are asking, ‘What can I get here that I can’t get over there?’ We are all over the city.”
The average price of a condo unit in central Toronto fell 8.2 per cent in January from the same month last year, according to the stats, but Mr. Bibby said that number doesn’t tell the full story: Some buyers have snagged deals at 20 per cent below previous sales for comparable units.
“It almost feels like I’m back a decade,” he said of the prices for some units.
At 28 Ted Rogers Way near Bloor Street East and Jarvis Street, Mr. Bibby’s clients purchased a two-bedroom unit for $650,000. A unit with an identical layout on a lower floor sold for $815,000 11 months ago.
What might a condo market recovery look like?
In River City, Mr. Bibby sold a studio apartment for $339,000, on Bay Street, a one-bedroom for $425,000, and in the Distillery District, a one-bed-plus-den for $525,000.
Mr. Bibby recently sold a townhouse at 10 Morrison St., which he first listed in June of 2024 with an asking price of $1.925-million. After five price cuts, unit 305 reached an asking price of $1.55-million and recently sold for $1.46-million.
“What is it going to take to get this sold?” is a common question from today’s clear-eyed sellers.
Mr. Bibby hopes his recent flurry of sales is a signal that the market is picking up. But he also remembers this time last year, when a similar spurt was halted when Mr. Trump returned to the White House and upended trade agreements.
Condo inventory in the Toronto core nearly doubled between February and May.
“It took all of the momentum out of the market,” he says of the supply surge.
As March kicks off, Mr. Bibby said the outlook for the spring market is difficult to predict.
On an optimistic note, interest rates and prices are lower in 2026 than they were in the spring of 2025. However, more listings are just around the corner.
People who want to test the market with a rich asking price are better off not listing at all, Mr. Bibby said.
In some cases, condo owners ask Mr. Bibby to evaluate the unit for a potential sale. When he tells them the likely number, some scoff and say they would never accept that amount.
“That’s the going price,” Mr. Bibby informs owners, explaining that a comparable unit just sold for that amount in the building. “I’ve tried to talk numerous people out of selling in the past few weeks.”
Mr. Bibby is advising more realistic sellers that being on the market and willing to negotiate is likely more prudent than counting on a rebound.
“I would take today over an unknown future.”