Buyers can exercise more caution this fall because there is so much inventory to choose from.Graeme Roy/The Canadian Press
As Ontario’s real estate market enters the final stretch of 2025, many sellers are fielding questions around their “Plan B.” For some, it’s time to put the plan in motion.
Throughout the fall, real estate agents and mortgage brokers in Toronto and surrounding cities have been advising homeowners to consider various scenarios in case they don’t get the price they are hoping for in the time they planned.
Melissa Carrington, of Keller Williams Complete Realty in Hamilton, has frank discussions with clients even before the “For Sale” sign goes up.
“A lot of the time I’m recommending a list price that is far off what they were thinking,” Ms. Carrington says.
That’s when she asks more probing questions to find out how the seller came up with the number they were counting on.
“What’s your worst-case scenario?” she asks. “What wiggle room do you have?”
Ms. Carrington, who does much of her business in Hamilton, Burlington, Brantford and surrounding areas, warns sellers who set their expectations too high that they risk chasing the market down.
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In the Hamilton and Burlington area, the average “days on market” has stretched to 77. Some properties sell in three days, she says, while others linger for 200 or more.
The “months of inventory,” which measures how long it would take to sell available listings at the current pace of sales, stands at 5.3.
“This is where the market is right now,” she informs clients.
Some properties continue to sell with multiple offers, she says, but buyers limit the premium they are willing to pay to 3 to 5 per cent above the asking price.
Some buyers view the overheated market of the early 2020s as a cautionary tale. At that time, a “fear of missing out” combined with low interest rates to fuel bidding wars and propel prices higher.
“They hear the horror stories,” she says.
Buyers can exercise more caution this fall because there is so much inventory to choose from.
“They know if they don’t see the value in it, they’re going to see five houses listed next week,” Ms. Carrington says.
Ontario home sellers face buyers willing to wait for a better deal
Sales in Hamilton-Burlington fell 13.3 per cent in October from September on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.
The average price dipped 2.6 per cent in October from the same month last year to stand at $845,444. Sales dropped 8.3 per cent in the same period.
Many consumers in the city west of Toronto have been rattled by the economic uncertainty surrounding the Canada-U.S. trade war, tariffs, and the effects on the steel and manufacturing industries.
Newcomers to Hamilton, Burlington and surrounding communities have also decreased, the Cornerstone Association of Realtors says.
Kyle Dahms, senior economist with National Bank of Canada, notes that housing markets in Ontario and British Columbia are softer than those in other provinces.
He adds that the Bank of Canada’s move to lower its benchmark rate at consecutive meetings in September and October is likely helping to bolster sales in the fourth quarter.
The economist sees lower mortgage rates supporting sales despite the continuing trade tensions.
Mortgage broker Leah Zlatkin, an expert for LowestRates.ca, says rates for a five-year fixed-term mortgage have fallen below 4 per cent in recent weeks.
Still, first-time buyers remain very cautious and tend to plan for every cost, Ms. Zlatkin says.
She adds that people who have the financial security to buy can often find a good deal by seeking out sellers under pressure and properties that have been sitting.
“The people who are selling are selling out of necessity,” Ms. Zlatkin says, adding that many homeowners who don’t feel pressure to sell are holding onto their properties until prices rebound.
Against that backdrop, sellers today who set an asking price according to the amount they want or need will face a lengthy time on market, Ms. Carrington says, because more motivated sellers are undercutting them.
“If they’re distressed and they need to sell, they’re going to list lower.”
The sellers holding out for a lofty amount are the ones who need to have a fallback, she adds.
In some cases, they may decide to reduce their asking price and press for a discount on the next property they buy.
For people with precarious jobs or finances, another option is to hold onto the property and give up a high-priced vehicle, for example.
Families who feel squeezed for space, for example, may be able to make do with two kids sharing a bedroom for a time.
“Sometimes selling isn’t best for them.”
Ms. Carrington points to the example of an elderly client who needs a more accessible layout. Instead of trying to sell in a slow market, the client may be better off making modifications to their current home, she says.
Sellers today who set an asking price according to the amount they want or need will face a lengthy time on market, says Ms. Carrington.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
In some cases, implementing the fallback plan can have a positive outcome for both sides of a deal.
Ms. Carrington recently worked with one homeowner who purchased a detached house for $1.1-million near the market peak, when mortgage rates were hovering around 1.2 per cent.
This fall, the homeowner’s monthly mortgage payment was set to double as the renewal date for the loan approached.
The client needed relief from the burden of looking after the property as well as the hefty mortgage, she says.
The client found a suitable home in a retirement community for a little more than $600,000, but the new property needed a renovation.
When it was time to sell the detached house, he accepted an offer of $150,000 less than he paid because the buyers agreed to a lengthy closing. That way he could live in his existing home until the renovation was completed on the new one.
“The buyers really wanted this property and were willing to wait for it,” Ms. Carrington says.
Many people are buying and selling for the typical reasons of a change in lifestyle, she says, but Ms. Carrington has observed an uptick in homeowners coping with job loss, divorce and a weak economy.
In some cases, banks are taking action.
Under “Power of Sale,” lenders force the sale of the property to recover outstanding mortgage debt.
In one case, Ms. Carrington worked with buyers interested in a detached house listed for sale by order of the lender.
The bank would not accept a conditional offer for the home in the small town of St. George, so the couple needed to sell their existing condo in Mississauga quickly because they couldn’t risk the possibility of carrying two properties, she says.
Ms. Carrington researched condos for sale in the city and found 143 nearly identical listings.
Some comparable units had asking prices as high as $550,000, but they were all languishing on the market. She advised the couple to list in the low $400,000s, below competing houses.
“We undercut the lowest one by $1,000,” Ms. Carrington says. “You don’t look at what things are listed for. You look at what has sold.”
The strategy worked and the condo sold in three weeks, Ms. Carrington says, adding that the couple were able to purchase the St. George home for $810,000.
As for homeowners who are still considering listing in the second half of November, she is recommending that they hold off until late January or early February.
“That’s when the serious buyers are out.”