After a long span of inertia, some high-priced waterfront real estate has recently changed hands in the town of Oakville, Ont.
The transactions near the stretch of Lake Ontario between Toronto and Niagara may signal that the lengthy impasse between sellers and buyers there is beginning to crumble, which in turn has sparked optimism among area real estate agents that the movement at the high end will cascade down to other segments of the market.
Matthew Regan, broker with Re/Max Escarpment Realty, says Oakville and the nearby municipalities of Burlington and Mississauga would benefit from improved liquidity.
“Even if I’m a $500,000 purchaser, it matters, because the dominoes start to fall,” says Mr. Regan. “It’s only a matter of time before it reaches other price segments.”
The Listing: A different set of rules governs the ultraluxury market
Real estate agent Alex Irish of Re/Max Escarpment Realty recently sold an opulent waterfront estate for $11.7-million after listing the property with an asking price of $15.9-million.
The mansion at 1092 Argyle Dr. provides 14,000 square feet of living space with a limestone façade, heated circular drive, tennis court and expansive terrace with views over the lake.
The sale marked the first sale above $10-million on the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Multiple Listing Service in Oakville since May, 2025, according to Ms. Irish.
She says the property languished when it was listed with another agent at a “grossly overpriced” $19.888-million.
Ms. Irish also sold a contemporary house with five bedrooms and a backyard pool at 2250 Chancery Lane West for $7.5-million after listing the property in December with an asking price above the $9-million mark.
A home on Cox Drive listed with another agent received three offers and sold for $9.9-million, she adds. The detached house, which had been on the market for about one year, was listed at one time with an asking price around the $15-million mark and was eventually reduced to $10.99-million.
Vigilant buyers have been waiting for prices to come down in upscale neighbourhoods. Now that many sellers have reduced their prices, some are betting that values will not fall significantly further.
They are finding more supply than usual along the edge of Lake Ontario because so few transactions have taken place, says Ms. Irish.
“You’ve got availability you typically don’t have in waterfront.”
Ms. Irish says the price reductions are an indicator of how soft the market has been in recent years because sellers in the upper echelons are less affected by economic factors and interest rates. For that reason, they tend to be patient.
“Luxury in general doesn’t discount because they have the ability to wait it out,” she says. “They can hang on if they need to.”
She currently has listed a palatial seven-bedroom house with an asking price of $39-million.
The home at 2054 Lakeshore Rd. E., designed by prominent architect Gren Weis, sits on 1.6 acres of land with a deck over the water’s edge and a stone staircase descending to the 166 feet of shoreline.
In Mississauga, Ms. Irish has listed a four-bedroom contemporary house with views of the Toronto skyline.
The house at 1540 Watersedge Rd., in Mississauga has an asking price of $15.9-million.
1540 Watersedge Rd., Mississauga, Ont.
Ms. Irish notes there are 433 waterfront properties in Oakville and only a small percentage have riparian rights, which means the homeowners have legal access to the water.
When owners redevelop older lots, they typically lose that right, so the supply is shrinking, she adds.
For that reason, waterfront homes with riparian rights typically hold their value more than other property types do.
Multiple offers typically come in when buyers have been keeping an eye on the property.
“When a listing has been on for a while, you start accumulating people who have been looking at it.”
The house hunters Ms. Irish has seen browsing along the waterfront tend to be trading up to a new primary residence, she says,
Ms. Irish says one reason people don’t buy a new property is that they worry they can’t sell their existing one.
“It’s a little tricky to buy a large waterfront home if you don’t think you can sell your house,” she says. “Smart people don’t get to these price points without making good decisions along the way.”
Mr. Regan says the market in all price segments had more energy in April.
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“It started with waterfront, and it sure as heck looks like it’s going to trickle down into the other price segments.”
The average price for a single-family home in Oakville rose 4.5 per cent in March from February, according to the Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board. Compared with the same month last year, the average price dropped 3.9 per cent to stand at $1.8-million.
Mr. Regan says sellers have become more realistic across every price segment because they understand buyers refuse to pay 2022 prices.
“Nobody in their right mind is paying that,” he says.
Mr. Regan notes that sellers cannot control interest rates, the health of the economy or geopolitical upheaval.
“The only variable that someone can control is price. If you price it well, it will sell.”
He is not expecting an upswing in prices, but he does expect the lengthy stalemate of the past few years to give way to a breakdown.
While people at the top end tend not to be affected by interest rates, the move-up buyers, a few rungs down the property ladder, typically need to sell their existing property to someone who does need a mortgage.
Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, says the Bank of Canada’s view that growth in the country’s economy will be higher than previously expected this year and next suggests that the policy-setting committee may lift the benchmark rate this year.
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The central bank held the key rate steady at 2.25 per cent in April as expected, but Mr. Saunders noted the hawkish tone to the Bank’s message in the face of elevated oil prices.
The economist says he is feeling more nervous about his forecast that a hike won’t come before 2027.
Mr. Regan says there is a “bit of a psychology play” in the market now.
Some sellers want to set an asking price higher than they’re really hoping for, knowing that a buyer will come in below that. No matter which price they choose, a buyer will present a lower offer, they figure.
In Mr. Regan’s experience, that thinking is flawed.
“If you price it too high, you’re a sitting duck,” he says. “No one will come in.”
Instead, he recommends choosing a more realistic price from the start, then holding firm during negotiations.
“If I could put that on a billboard for sellers – that works almost nine out of 10 times.”