Sales in the Greater Toronto Area last month declined 5.2 per cent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
Buyers and sellers in the Toronto-area real estate market entered October with a little more vigour after a jittery September, but potential troubles continue to loom over the fall market.
Jimmy Molloy and Lindsay Van Wert, real estate agents with Chestnut Park Real Estate, say many buyers remain tentative, but some are coming to the table in the early days of October, including one who has been looking for a property for two-and-a-half years.
Trades are most often based on pragmatism: some people have already sold their existing home or purchased a new one while others have a job transfer to another city, according to Ms. Van Wert.
The two expect new listings will arrive on the market now that the long weekend is in the past, but they are not anticipating a large influx.
Mr. Molloy says people who halted their plans to buy or sell as fall kicked off are pointing to a range of concerns: the U.S. war with Iran, doomsday artificial intelligence scenarios, rising interest rates and fears of inflation.
Some are also worried about the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections slated for Nov. 3 and whether the results will lead to claims of a rigged vote.
Against that backdrop, the collapse of trade talks between the United States and Canada in late August was the final straw, Mr. Molloy says, as people collectively asked, ‘what are we in for?’
“This just gave buyers the permission to say, ‘let’s wait it out,’” he says. “Everything was pushing everyone into a pause.”
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The rupture also had a greater impact because the tariff war intensified just as the fall market was getting under way, he adds. If negotiations had broken down in July, people would have headed to cottages and golf courses and shifted their focus to other areas of their lives.
Instead, the industry’s optimism for a stronger September quickly fizzled.
Sales in the Greater Toronto Area last month declined 5.2 per cent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
Compared with September, 2025, sales fell 9 per cent in September and new listings dropped 14.4 per cent.
The most severe slide occurred in the suburban 905 region, where sales of semi-detached homes fell 13.6 per cent last month compared with September of last year.
Semi-detached houses in the core 416 area code held up better than all other brackets, posting a slight 0.9 per cent dip in sales compared with the same period last year.
Sales of detached houses in the 416 decreased 4 per cent last month compared with September, 2025.
As for average prices, condo apartments in the 905 gave up the most ground, with a 12 per cent decline in September from a year earlier.
Semi-detached homes in the 416 edged up 2.1 per cent in the same period to post the only increase among all housing types.
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The average price of a detached house in the core fell 7.6 per cent.
Across the broader market, the average price in the GTA stood at $1,006,409 last month.
As trade uncertainty continues in Canada, last month’s employment numbers disappointed forecasters on Bay Street.
Large back-to-back declines in August and September mean the Bank of Canada is less likely to raise its benchmark interest rate when policy-makers meet later this month, says Thomas Ryan, senior North America economist at Capital Economics.
Despite the economic uncertainty, some pockets of the market are active in central Toronto, says Patrick Rocca, broker with Bosley Real Estate, who logged five deals in the first eight days of October.
In south Leaside, Toronto, five bidders vied for a four-bedroom detached house at 61 Hanna Rd. with an asking price of $2.199-million. The property on a desirable street sold for $2.223-million.Bosley Real Estate Ltd.
He expects the pace to remain brisk this month but cautions that the results are unpredictable.
In south Leaside, five bidders vied for a four-bedroom detached house at 61 Hanna Rd. with an asking price of $2.199-million. The property on a desirable street sold for $2.223-million.
While many buyers favour a property in turnkey condition, new owners will likely want to do some renovations, he says.
“People understood the location.”
The property did not go to the highest bidder, he adds, because the offer slightly below the top amount came with a significantly shorter window before closing.
In another case, two buyers competed for a bungalow in a premier location, but the house still sold below asking. The property with a list price of $1.299-million sold for $1.275-million.
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Mr. Rocca did not set an offer night for either property, but competition arose organically.
Meanwhile, some others have been sitting, he says.
Mr. Rocca says some buyers are acting now because they have pre-approved financing and a hold on the mortgage rate. They want to secure a deal before the offer expires because they are betting that rates will rise.
Some potential sellers are asking if they should list this fall or wait for next year.
“I tell them my crystal ball has shattered,” he says.
Some people are choosing to list this fall because they figure they will face more competition in the spring. Mr. Rocca urges them to be ready as soon as possible.
“I’m pushing people now.”
For those who are prepping the house for a sale in early 2027, he’s having exterior photographs taken now.
“We can deal with the interiors in February,” he says.
In an uneven market, Mr. Molloy and Ms. Van Wert are counselling their clients to sell an existing property before buying a new one. They have a responsibility to advise their clients on how to reduce risk, they point out.
Some homeowners worry they won’t be able to find a new house before the closing date for their current home, and Ms. Van Wert acknowledges that there is a chance of that happening.
“It’s a better risk than being in financial ruin and owning two houses and not being able to close on the purchase,” she says.
The smallest condos are being hit hardest by the market decline
Mr. Molloy says the current malaise is temporary, but he expects the fall market to remain subdued against a backdrop of negative news.
With Halloween already approaching, there is not a lot of time before the weather turns.
“On Nov. 1 it’s going to be Christmas music everywhere.”
Some potential sellers are waiting to see if the federal government will bring an end to the foreign buyer’s ban, which is set to remain in place until Jan. 1.
Others are just hoping that a new year will bring some improvements to the economic and geopolitical landscape.
“People are saying 2026 is a bad year,” says Mr. Molloy. “The year is done. Let’s put a fork in it.”