A Harbour Air seaplane takes off past office and condo towers, in Vancouver, in July, 2024.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Unsold, unoccupied and unaffordable. That’s the situation for most of the condo inventory that has been recently built, is currently for sale, and has not sold in Vancouver and Burnaby, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) data released last week.
In the city of Vancouver, 81 per cent of the new unsold condo units are priced at more than $1-million. More than 14 per cent are over $3-million. In Burnaby, 81 per cent of new unsold condo inventory is on the market for more than $1-million.
Across Metro Vancouver, one-third, or 37 per cent of unsold condo units are priced at more than $1-million, according to the CMHC data, which looks at so-called “unabsorbed” housing, or homes that have never been purchased, as opposed to new units that were bought and flipped or for which sales failed to complete. The data is current as of March 31.
The total number of newly built condo units on the market in Metro Vancouver is 3,195 as of March, according to the data. The total number of all newly built unsold housing is 4,919, including houses, duplexes, row houses and condo units. Of all the unsold condo units, only 10 per cent are located in Vancouver. Burnaby has 18 per cent of all unsold units in the region; Coquitlam has 12 per cent; Surrey has 5 per cent; and Richmond has 30 per cent.
“This is like a weather report,” said Simon Fraser University associate professor Andy Yan, who analyzed the raw numbers. “It helps us gauge the real estate climate in Vancouver and Toronto. We get to see where the hot spots are, and where things are frozen, such as those condos over $1-million.”
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Housing experts say factors behind high unsold housing numbers are a market downturn driven by a higher interest rate, political upheaval, lower rents and policies that made investment unappealing. In March, Ontario announced a $1.3-billion plan to buy around 2,200 built, unsold condos and turn them into rental units, as a partnership between the Building Ontario Fund and the Canada Infrastructure Bank and private investment firm High Art Capital. Ontario also announced a temporary HST rebate effective April 1, on homes up to $1-million.
In the city of Toronto, 61 per cent of the unsold condo stock is priced at more than $1-million. The Greater Toronto Area has 701 newly built unsold units on the market at all price levels, according to Prof. Yan’s analysis. The numbers do not include those units where the seller has failed to complete the purchase.
The CMHC said in an e-mail:
“This data is based on what enumerators can best gather from developers and other sources. Actual pricing of completed and unabsorbed units is dynamic, and this data will not include sale incentives or promotions provided, which are increasingly common in the Vancouver CMA.”
The standing inventory of $1-million-plus homes is the fallout of housing development driven by wealthy buyers, both end users and investors, a system that couldn’t sustain itself, said Dr. Carolyn Whitzman, senior housing researcher at University of Toronto’s School of Cities and author of Home Truths: Fixing Canada’s Housing Crisis.
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“When condos were first legalized in the 1970s, a lot of condos were being built for, let’s say, downsizing seniors, empty nesters and for young households, and they were considered to be cheap entry units,” said Dr. Whitzman. “Gradually, condos became seen as more and more of an investment product, and less of a place for people to live, let alone have families there.
“And we’re just seeing one aspect of the market failure, which is evident across Canada, which is that at a certain point, if you keep on building luxury product – product that can only be bought or even rented by the top 20 per cent or even the top 40 per cent of household incomes, but is completely unaffordable to middle-income people, let alone moderate-income households – that market’s going to get saturated,” she said.
“So, the market for very small condo units, which in many cases were being bought in order to be rented – secondary rentals are like 50 per cent of the rental market in Toronto – or to be sold, which is where we’re at right now. And it was supported by low interest rates, and by perhaps just an entire emphasis on housing as an investment. I think we’ve hit a crash in terms of those homes.”
Dr. Whitzman said that too many of the units built for investors are cramped, poorly designed and cheaply built. The price points are also too high for the average resident, usually double what people can afford in rent. She pointed out that a $1-million home requires a $200,000 down payment and mortgage payments of around $4,500 or more. Condo fees are on top of that.
“In fact, it’s in no way, shape or form affordable to incomes in the top income quintile, let alone middle-class households, let alone moderate households who might be willing to accept, say, slightly smaller units or slightly less storage in return for a really good location,” she said. “So it doesn’t make sense right now to buy one of these.”
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Development consultant and retired architect Michael Geller did his own survey among some major condo marketers to figure out what the inventory was comprised of, and he said little of it is in Vancouver.
“It seemed like a startling statistic: at a time when we all think there’s a housing crisis, how come there are so many units?”
The CMHC numbers would be even higher if they counted the sellers that are defaulting on their purchases, he said.
“There are a fair number of units that were sold, but the buyers are not completing,” said Mr. Geller.
He said Vancouver hasn’t built many condo units in recent years, which is the reason for the relatively low numbers.
“A lot of the buildings that we saw in Vancouver really were targeted to a higher-end market as compared to Burnaby, Surrey, Richmond and Coquitlam.”
The other problem for owners of unsold units is that the rental market has softened.
“The Vancouver rental market is like a Catch-22, in that we wanted to bring down rents. And the way to do that was to increase supply. We have increased supply to the point that the new projects are no longer viable.”
Mr. Geller isn’t in favour of the government stepping in to give tax breaks or other incentives to help developers sell off new housing stock. Instead, he’s in favour of programs that help first-time buyers or incentivize the construction of housing that will likely be more affordable and designed for buyers who want to live in them.
“I don’t have as much of a problem if the government wants to do things to incentivize new construction. Depending on who you talk to, there are over 40,000 units that have been approved, but have not yet proceeded to construction in Metro Vancouver,” said Mr. Geller.
“These are all projects that are approved, both condominium and rental, but are not proceeding.”