A software engineer who came from Singapore in 2017, Afian Anwar says that without views of nature, Vancouver is “just another mid-tier American city.”Jennifer Gauthier/The Globe and Mail
Software engineer Afian Anwar was riding his bike across Vancouver’s Burrard Street Bridge about six months ago and saw the third high-rise under way for Senakw, an 11-tower housing project in Kitsilano.
His consulting company, Afi Labs, does 3-D mapping for Google Maps, so he decided to map out Senakw, to determine if it would block views of Vancouver’s famous mountains. Mr. Anwar had been using the technology during his research when buying a house to determine if his and his wife’s views would ever be blocked by development, if they purchased in Kitsilano Point, for example. He created a photorealistic 3-D map of Senakw to determine sightlines from anywhere in the city.
After all, he said, the primary reason for being in Vancouver is the beautiful setting of the city and its proximity to the mountains.
“That’s what people come to see,” said Mr. Anwar, who relocated to Vancouver from Singapore in 2017, drawn by a job. He stayed for the lifestyle, including skiing and biking. “These photos, of the sea, and the mountains, the snow-capped peaks – if you lose that, you’re just another mid-tier American city, to be honest.”
A photo-realistic 3-D map Afian Anwar created of the planned Senakw housing development in Vancouver.Afi Labs
Mr. Anwar said he and his wife could make it work in Vancouver because they earned their money in Singapore. For newcomers who can afford it, Vancouver is still a deal. And unlike other Asian cities, people in Canada can own their land, not lease it from the government for 90 years, he said. People dependent on local incomes would have a different experience, he said.
“I would love to have a family here one day. It’s a great environment for the kids. But it is very expensive, very unaffordable. Coming from Singapore, or people who come from Hong Kong or China, where it’s even more expensive to own a home, I think a lot of international people feel that prices are reasonable for what you get. But if you lived here in Vancouver, if you grew up here, you have seen this city change beyond belief, I feel.”
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As well, his business customers are international, which means he can live anywhere.
“If I were to limit my geography to just Vancouver, it would be tough. And I think it’s tough for a lot of people,” he said, citing sharp drops in tech incomes.
Jennifer Gauthier/The Globe and Mail
The push to build more housing is fuelled by forecasts that anticipate 42,500 new residents in Vancouver every year by 2050, with Metro Vancouver projected to have a population of 4.1 million by then. But thousands of condo units are currently sitting empty and unsold, and people who can’t afford the city are leaving. Who are the renters who will fill new developments like Senakw?
Economist David Williams co-authored a report last summer that showed B.C. is experiencing a record exodus out of the province, with many residents moving to Ontario and Alberta. There has been an interprovincial outflow of 70,000 people in the last year – the largest on record. Half of the migrants went to Alberta, attracted by lower taxes, high-paying jobs and more affordable housing. They are highly educated and economically motivated, according to the report, written by Mr. Williams and Jairo Yunis for the B.C. Business Council, based on Statistics Canada data.
“These are historically high numbers of people leaving,” said Mr. Williams, and it’s an exodus that began accelerating in 2022.
“We’re losing really the prime age workers. They tend to be young, skilled and contributing to the tax base, meaning that they’re paying more in taxes than they consume in services,” he said. “And then the people coming in … there are a lot of young people, too, because obviously young people are more mobile. But there’s also a lot of people who are pre- or early-retirement. So, we tend to lose a little bit more of the younger people and we tend to gain a bit more of the older people who are likely to be using services and paying a little less in taxes.
“People are at the moment deciding to vote with their feet and try to build their life in Alberta. And I think that’s something we need to be thinking about in B.C., from a policy standpoint.”
“We’ve still got a bit of a lull, I think, for the next couple of years,” he said.
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Mr. Williams said part of the problem for the economy is an overall lack of labour productivity and an experimental immigration policy focused on overall population growth instead of GDP growth per person. The federal policy added about 1.2 million people in 2023 alone, at an unprecedented level, with a shift toward temporary residents and away from skilled, educated, prosperous newcomers.
“It was a wild ride; about three per cent of the existing population, which is six times the long-term average,” said Mr. Williams.
“We saw GDP per person collapse over the last two years in Canada and labour productivity has been negative, actually. When you add it all up, once you adjust for population, Canada’s economy has barely grown in the past 10 years.”
Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist from Desjardins Group, said Toronto has also been losing population to Calgary, and other Ontario cities, due to erosion of affordability, although not to the same extent as Vancouver. The federal government’s immigration policy only exacerbated the problem.
“The question is, what’s going to change direction in the next couple of years? I mean, we expect that housing is going to become somewhat more affordable. We’re seeing that, especially in multi-unit residential, you know, we’re seeing that there’s more purpose-built rental construction happening, which is both going to make renting more affordable, but also take some pressure off market housing as well to some extent.
“I think there is some room for optimism, but affordability really has two parts,” he said. “There’s the housing, the cost of the housing itself, but then as in Alberta’s case, there’s also the income side of it, right? And I think that, to me, is the tougher question when it comes to Vancouver and B.C. more broadly: What’s going to help boost incomes in B.C.?”
Mr. Bartlett said government needs to focus more on attracting industries that boost incomes and productivity, such as offering tax incentives for businesses.
The intersection of Dunsmuir St. and Howe St. in downtown Vancouver’s shopping district.Isabella Falsetti/The Globe and Mail
Mr. Anwar, he and his wife found a house in Point Grey with direct views of the mountains that likely won’t ever be blocked. After 3-D modelling Senakw, he determined that residents in Kits Point would only lose a partial view of Mount Baker.
Despite the city’s challenges, he does believe that more people will eventually come to Vancouver, and he believes the FIFA World Cup next year will engender another boom, like the 2010 Olympics.
“I think the population of Vancouver will only increase. You know, there are only a few places in Canada that people want to move to.”