Nearing one of the biggest decisions of his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada on Tuesday, Mark Carney will be equipped with a mountain of information on the latest economic trends, produced by the central bank's small army of economists and researchers. He will have huddled closely with his top lieutenants, discussing the state of financial markets and key factors affecting the economy, such as the housing sector or Europe's current fiscal woes.
But for all the deliberate information gathering and shared input at the central bank, Mr. Carney wastes no time as he calls the shots, say those who have worked with him.
"As an academic, I found it a bit difficult to keep comments to just three minutes," says Angelo Melino, a University of Toronto professor who was the bank's special adviser in 2008 and 2009, through the chaos of the financial crisis. "[Mr. Carney]is very business-like and quick moving. He would no doubt listen, but was very willing to challenge you as well. If you said something that didn't quite fit together, or fit with his views, he'd have no qualms about responding. He was very much in control."
Eight times a year, the Bank of Canada issues a decision to hold, raise or cut interest rates it charges for short-term loans to banks. The decision is a product of intensive research and collaboration at the bank's Ottawa headquarters at 234 Wellington St.
Rate-related discussions ramp up on the Wednesday before the announcement. The governing council, now comprised of Mr. Carney and deputy governors Jean Boivin, Pierre Duguay, John Murray and Timothy Lane, is briefed on four major topics: risks and the likely path for the economy; the bank's business outlook survey and regional views; credit and money conditions; and market expectations on interest rates.
Research has been assembled by some of the bank's 200 economists and address every aspect of the economy - from GDP reports to car sales, housing starts, employment, trade and retail sales. Bank staff crunches numbers on how alternative scenarios - higher rates, tighter credit or rising oil prices - would play out. Temporary factors are considered, like strikes, weird weather or special car promotions.
Backgrounders are distributed on dozens of issues: whether Canada's housing market is overvalued, inventory cycles in China, oil forecasts or U.S. auto sales, to mention a few.
"An enormous amount of effort goes into where we are - trying to figure out what's going on in the economy because of the lags in the information they receive," Mr. Melino says. "That's something the bank wants to do better. During normal times it's not that important but during a crisis, finding out where you are is really, really important."
On Friday morning, over coffee, water or juice in the bank's board room, the council meets with the monetary policy review committee, which includes six special advisers, chiefs of four economics departments, communications officials and financial markets directors in Montreal and Toronto. Up to 22 people attend, BoC spokeswoman Stephanie Bento says.
The meeting lasts about an hour and a half. They discuss any recent developments in financial markets or the global economy, changes in the labour and real-estate market. They talk about the market, and how it might react to various decisions. They discuss how key messages should be communicated.
Then each person in the room airs his or her views and makes a recommendation on interest rate strategy.
Mr. Carney, 45, landed as Governor in 2008. Since then, a string of long-tenured deputies such as Paul Jenkins, David Longworth, Sheryl Kennedy have left. At the end of July, Pierre Duguay will do likewise. A younger guard, including Tiff Macklem who rejoins the bank as senior deputy governor on July 1, has taken the reins.
By all accounts, it's a place where Mr. Carney is top dog. His tenure has been marked by increased transparency - the bank now publishes four full-blown monetary policy reports a year, for example - and with that also comes heavier workloads.
The bank has also boosted scrutiny in several areas in recent years, such as risk management and global developments.
Europe will be a key focus this time round, says Sheryl King, who was an economist at the central bank for eight years and is now head of economics at Merrill Lynch Canada.
"They're going to be looking at possible channels of contagion. Is Europe going to be weaker? Are banks safe, are they liquid? The issue becomes if it's not contained there, does it spread elsewhere? Everyone's thinking back to 2008 … those are the types of things they'll be taking into consideration."
She describes the tone of these briefings as "cordial," where people are deferential to the chain of command. Though she left the bank before Mr. Carney's arrival, her sense is "the Governor's view is the dominant one, and there's little dissent once he airs it."