Oil prices have plunged to five-and-a-half-year lows amid soaring production from U.S. shale plays and sluggish demand.TODD KOROL/Reuters
OPEC is resisting moves to halt the free fall in oil prices, stoking fears of deeper cuts to staffing and spending plans in Canada's energy sector as companies hunker down for a prolonged slump.
Lightstream Resources Ltd. and CanElson Drilling Corp. on Monday joined a growing list of companies that have slashed budgets and in some cases scrapped investor dividends in response to the roughly 60-per-cent plunge in oil prices since June, 2014. Iran's Oil Minister indicated that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had no intention of cutting output to buttress prices, saying the Middle East producer could withstand prices as low as $25 (U.S.) a barrel, according to reports.
The moves show oil prices may have further to fall before rebounding later this year, exacerbating layoffs and budget reductions that have already cut a wide swath across much of Canada's energy industry.
A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) last week said there were signs that low prices had begun to curb production in some areas, but slack demand in key markets and bulging global inventories will keep a lid on prices for some time yet, said Jackie Forrest, vice-president of ARC Financial Corp. in Calgary.
"It's going to get worse before it gets better. So although they've tightened up their balances from last month, they still have quite a large imbalance in the first half of this year," she said, referring to the IEA's monthly oil market report, which shaved its estimate for non-OPEC supply growth by 350,000 barrels a day.
"And then you've got this dynamic playing out where those OPEC producers that can produce more are producing more to offset the revenue they're losing at the lower oil prices … so I do expect greater reductions in [capital expenditures] still to come if the prices stay in this less than $50 [West Texas intermediate] level."
Oil prices have plunged to five-and-a-half-year lows amid soaring production from U.S. shale plays and sluggish demand, a situation compounded by OPEC's refusal to cut output. Instead, members of the producing club are boosting production, adding to supply pressures: Iraq pumped a record four million barrels a day in December, the country's Oil Minister said over the weekend, and U.S. production has so far not ebbed.
U.S. benchmark West Texas intermediate fetched about $47 a barrel in trading Monday; in June, WTI topped $100. Brent, the international standard, retreated $1.33 to settle at $48.84 a barrel. U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
The oil rout has thrown long-term growth prospects across much of Canada's energy industry into neutral, forcing producers to cut deeply into 2015 spending plans and others to delay investments in new projects.
Calgary-based Lightstream on Monday suspended its dividend indefinitely and warned it was in danger of breaching its obligations to lenders if low oil prices persist. The company said it would spend roughly $95-million (Canadian) in the first half of this year, a sharp revision from the $190-million to $210-million budget set in December. That budget covered the entire year.
CanElson, a Calgary-based driller, chopped $51-million from its 2015 budget, down 80 per cent from earlier expectations. The cuts include $30.2-million earmarked for construction of three new rigs. The company also slashed its dividend in half, to three cents a share from six cents previously, amid expectations of reduced activity in Saskatchewan and the North Dakota Bakken.
The moves mirror a larger pullback in the oil sands, which faces some of the highest costs globally. Suncor Energy Inc. this month slashed $1-billion from its budget and cut 1,000 jobs, while Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. reduced spending by $2.4-billion. Both companies have signalled that they will cut further if oil's slide worsens.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said Monday that the market will remain under pressure, despite data last week that showed a falling U.S. rig count.