When U.S. President Donald Trump talks about his beloved wall – as he did again in this week's State of the Union address – most people assume it's all about Mexico.
They are wrong.
Mr. Trump's wall has evolved into a catch-all for a massive U.S. effort to beef up security on all its borders, including the 8,891-kilometre expanse it shares with Canada. The White House, top Senate Republicans and many congressional Democrats are all talking about a security build-up that would encompass the Canadian border.
Mr. Trump has asked Congress to create a US$25-billion trust fund to pay for a border-wall system, entry and exit ports, and "northern border improvements and enhancements." The White House framework on immigration reform and border security, released last week, states that "securing the southern and northern border … takes a combination of physical infrastructure, technology, personnel, resources, authorities, and the ability to close loopholes that are exploited by smugglers, traffickers, cartel, criminals and terrorists."
John Cornyn of Texas, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, also has his eye on threats from Canada. The border wall is really about putting in place an extensive security system that "will include technology and include more border patrol, and it's going to have to be integrated along the entire border and [the] northern border as well," he told CNN last month.
This isn't necessarily a bad thing if the "wall" means more drones, remote sensors and other technology between border stations. More security along the vast expanse of mountains, lakes, forests and prairie that separates the two countries might even help stem the flow of asylum seekers who have been entering Canada illegally from the United States since Mr. Trump's election.
If our neighbours want to spend billions on walls and drones, fine. Good fences make good neighbours, after all.
But that isn't how it's worked out in the past. Earlier waves of tougher U.S. security have generally created a "thicker" border, marked by more inspections and longer delays for people, goods and vehicles.
Among other things, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) says it wants to address unspecified "capability gaps" on the Canadian border, according to a threat analysis report on the border released last July. Politicians from states that border Canada regularly lobby for more money to beef up security along what is the world's longest land border. The northern border is currently patrolled by roughly 2,000 U.S. agents, compared with 17,000 on the Mexican border.
The DHS report points out the large volume of legitimate travel across the Canada-U.S. border combined with "long stretches of difficult terrain" expose the United States to security threats, including "homegrown violent extremists" attempting to get into the country.
The Canadian border may be porous and, in most places, completely unguarded. But that reflects the relatively low threat. The DHS report acknowledged that fewer than 800 people a year have been caught trying to cross illegally into the United States from Canada in the past five years, versus hundreds of thousands on the southern border. In the past year, far more asylum-seekers have been coming to Canada than vice versa.
The most common problem on the Canadian border isn't terrorists or illegal immigration, it's drugs, according to DHS. Fentanyl, ecstasy and marijuana enter the United States from Canada, albeit in much smaller quantities than the cocaine and other drugs that flow the other way.
A less seamless border wouldn't be good for Canada at a time when its trade relationship with the United States is already under a cloud. Mr. Trump has threatened to pull out of the North American free-trade agreement if the United States can't extract significant trade concessions from Canada and Mexico.
Tougher border security is expected to be central to a proposed compromise over immigration, including the fate of 1.8 million young immigrants who have been in the United States illegally since they were children.
The continuing U.S. debate over the wall will continue to focus on Mexico. But Canadians would be wise to keep a close eye on how much money Congress allocates for the northern border and how it's ultimately spent.
The Trump administration's perception of "improvements and enhancements" may not be Canada's.
Anything that impedes trade would compound the uncertainty already hanging over Canada's access to the U.S. market.
And, of course, Canada should resist any suggestion that it pay for it all.