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Has life just got a whole lot tougher for airlines operating in Europe? It is certainly arguable that Ryanair's purchase of 175 new 737 Boeing aircraft, to be delivered between 2014 and 2018, paves the way for a more disruptive market in the coming years.
In spite of widespread recession and high fuel prices, the airline business has actually been quite disciplined over the past 18 months. Flag carriers have been restructuring and weaker airlines, from Spanair to Malev, have grounded fleets. With capacity under control, some carriers – including Ryanair – have been able to push up yields. Over all, according to IATA, the region probably broke even last year.
Ryanair's new planes, though, will increase its fleet from 300 to 400 aircraft over the delivery period. (About 75 are replacement aircraft). That, the aggressive low-cost carrier says, will facilitate annual growth of about 5 per cent a year and allow it to push its EU market share from 15 to 20 per cent. Investors who may have worried that the company was turning into a well-run, ex-growth cash-generation machine, should have their doubts dispelled. Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary also sees less fleet seasonality: Oil price moves permitting, the airline will park fewer aircraft in the winter months, upping the pressure on competitors.
The growth forecasts are not outlandish and the planned progress looks reasonably measured. Even so, the Boeing deal still gave Ryanair shares, trading on a 14 times 2013-14 earnings multiple, a 4-per-cent bounce on Tuesday. Ryanair's gain, meanwhile, was matched by losses elsewhere: IAG, Air France and Lufthansa were all down.