Here is a fearless prediction for the coming year: There's a takeover in the cards for TMX Group, owner of the venerable Toronto Stock Exchange.
Each year, Peter Haynes and the six-person index products team at TD Securities take their best shot at predicting what's coming in the markets. The group's "Top 10 Predictions" report has established a wide following, partly because it's bold, but also because it's well-researched and eerily accurate.
With that track-record in mind, here's one notable call TD Securities is making for the coming year: A return to consolidation among exchanges will see TMX Group merge with a global exchange.
"Toward the end of 2010 and early 2011, the theme of consolidation will once again gain traction in the exchange space, partly on the back of locking down broader control of the listings business as the global economy rebounds," predicts TD Securities as part of its 36-page report.
"While the experiences of NYSE, NASDAQ and others prove that maximizing synergies in complex mergers is difficult, it is not impossible, and TMX may provide an opportunity in this regard, especially with respect to its legacy technology."
These are the headlines for the whole Top 10 list from TD Securities - we'll add flesh to these calls later on Thursday.
1. TSX Will Repatriate S&P/TSX Index System
2. Hedge Funds and Pros Over Crowd Income Trust Conversion Trade
3. S&P Includes Non-TSX data in S&P/TSX Composite Index Rule Set
4. Canadian Regulators Buck the Trend and Eliminate Short Sale Tick Test Completely
5. Myth Busting - Canadian Issuers, Regulators and Investors Figure the Ins and
Outs of High Frequency Trading
6. Naked Access Banned in Canada - Large HFTs Become Principal Only Dealers
7. Marketplace Fee Wars Shrink Rebates - HFT Community gets Smarter
8. Three to Five New Marketplaces for Canada in 2010, Including at least Two New Dark Pools
9. Corporate Debt Issuance Highlights Importance for Pension Funds of Monitoring the Changing Risk Profile of Index Benchmarks
10. TMX a Natural Partner as Consolidation Talk Heats Up in Late 2010 - Controlling Global Listings a Key Theme