The first two banks to report show starkly different pictures for trading revenue. CIBC's trading income rose in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, bucking what analysts expect to be a general slowdown.
National Bank, by comparison, was more in line with what was expected from a quarter with narrower spreads and markets that weren't just a one-way bet.
CIBC's trading income rose to $379-million from $361-million the prior quarter, led by a big three months for the bank's interest rate trading desk. Foreign exchange, equities and commodities also eked out better numbers.
National Bank Financial reported trading revenues that slumped to $152-million from $197-million as both equities and fixed income trading slumped big time. Commodities and foreign exchange managed to increase their take.
Which is likely to be the real story line when the rest of the banks report?
So far, some analysts like Barclays Capital's John Aiken are sticking to their expectation that National Bank is more typical of what's really going on.
"We caution that National's trading experience was much closer to what we had anticipated and sequential declines in this line item could produce headwinds," Mr. Aiken said.