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Carney holds the line Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney held his benchmark interest rate at 1 per cent today even as he slightly upgraded the central bank's economic forecasts for this year and next.
The Bank of Canada warned in its accompanying statement that uncertainty overseas, the strong Canadian dollar and the poor productivity performance among companies will hold back exports, Globe and Mail economics writer Jeremy Torobin reports.
The economy will grow 2.4 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2012, the Bank of Canada said, up slightly from earlier forecasts.
When all is said and done, interest rates are expected to hold where they are for some time yet, though markets will increasingly speculate on the timing of the next rate hike. Here the views of some economists today:
- "Even while slightly upgrading its economic outlook, the BoC appears to have gone to lengths not to sound hawkish - to avoid igniting another surge in a Canadian dollar already above parity with the U.S. currency ... The BoC's next fixed announcement date is only six weeks away (March 1) and today's communiqué did not signal a hike at this next meeting. Nonetheless, intrigue as to the specific timing of the next hike will still build in the months ahead." Pascal Gauthier, senior economist, Toronto-Dominion Bank
- "The Bank of Canada remains very cautious in adopting changes to its outlook - despite a number of positive developments over the past couple of months (stronger growth abroad a key factor, an improved U.S. growth outlook this year in particular) ... We think there will be some positive growth surprises relative to the Bank's forecast over the next several months that could test their patience and lead to more substantive upward adjustments to their forecast revisions in April (which we had flagged for the likely start of the next rate hike cycle that would lead to an aggregate 100 basis points of increases this year)." Mark Chandler, head of Canada fixed income and currency strategy, RBC Dominion Securities
- "We continue to expect the BoC to be on hold until October of this year - about six months later than market pricing ... The BoC has been able to sustainably run ahead of the Fed in its tightening efforts, but is at a limit that in our opinion will not be tested again until this fall. In that sense, our view that the Fed is on hold until at least [the first quarter of 2012]significantly handicaps the BoC's next move and is an added constraint on how far the BoC can front-run the Fed." Derek Holt, Gorica Djeric, Scotia Capital
There had been no pressure on Mr. Carney to raise rates, and plenty of reasons against such a move, despite a call in some quarters for the central bank to begin tightening again.
The U.S. recovery remains tentative - note the high jobless rate - and the outcome of the European debt crisis is still anyone's guess.
In Canada, the recovery is proceeding, though at a slower pace than the initial rebound, and unemployment is still high at 7.6 per cent. The strength of the loonie will also continue to impact exports, as the bank highlighted today.
Inflation is also of little concern at this point. The annual pace of inflation is at Mr. Carney's of 2 per cent, but that's down from earlier readings, and the core index that guides the central bank is only at 1.4 per cent. As well, as economists have noted, the Bank of Canada doesn't want to get too far ahead of its U.S. counterpart, whose key rate is near zero.
"The central bank has the luxury of time (with inflation still very quiescent and inflation expectations well-anchored) to wait and see the early impact of the U.S. stimulus plan and whether higher commodity prices can 'stick,'" Mr. Chandler said.
All that was left to haunt Mr. Carney - the bloated debt levels of consumers - has now had a helping hand from Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. Mr. Flaherty yesterday tightened the rules governing mortgages and home-equity lines of credit and loans, leaving Mr. Carney free to focus on overall economic conditions and inflation.
- Economy picks up, but risks remain
- Markets await Carney's monetary policy report
- C.D. Howe wants a rate hike. Seriously?
- Unemployment forecast to remain high
- Flaherty moves to put brakes on consumer debt
- Debt worries trump home sales
- Ripple effect of mortgage changes may slow economy
- Editorial: Too much credit where it's due
All eyes on Apple Apple Inc. earnings always generate intense interest. That interest will heighten today when the technology giant reports quarterly results after markets close given the equally intense concern among investors over the health of chief executive officer Steve Jobs.
Mr. Jobs, who has suffered in the past from pancreatic cancer and underwent a liver transplant, said yesterday he's taking another medical leave, though he will remain CEO and still be involved in major strategic decision. Chief operating officer Tim Cook will run the company day to day.
Apple is an investor's dream, driven, of course, by the genius of Mr. Jobs. Its stock fell in European trading yesterday when he announced his leave, and is sinking today in New York, and the company is likely to be asked on its earnings conference call about the situation.
With the huge success of its iPhone, iPad and iPod, analysts expect Apple could report revenue gains of 50 per cent or more, according to Reuters. They anticipate sales of 15.5 million iPhones, 5.5 million iPads and 4 million Macs. Profit is expected to be $5.37 (U.S.) a share, and revenue of $24.2-billion.
EU ministers meet Europe's finance ministers appear to have come to something of a decision: They need more time. Really, people, this may not be the best way to reassure the markets.
Finance ministers met yesterday and today in Brussels, and, beyond deciding how to proceed with new stress tests for banks, have come to no consensus on beefing up the size of their bailout fund.
Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble - his government is wary of increasing the European Financial Stability Facility - said there's no need to rush.
"We want to bring about a comprehensive package and this naturally means, beyond short-term measures, an improvement of the Stability and Growth pact and economic coordination," Mr. Schaeuble told reporters, according to Reuters.
Britain grapples with inflation Britain appears to be in something of a sticky wicket, with its economy still struggling after the recession but inflation running high.
Consumer prices in Britain jumped 1 per cent in December, statistics showed today, marking the fastest monthly pace in some 18 years. That put the annual inflation rate at 3.7 per cent, way above the Bank of England's target of 2 per cent.
"Continued stubbornness of inflation and the potential for further upside in the coming months suggests that the Bank of England may have to begin tightening sooner than expected," said BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Benjamin Reitzes.
While inflationary pressures are on the radar screen in many countries - particularly emerging markets such as China and India - they are not so much a concern in other regions, such as the United States and Canada. Rising inflation in some countries threatens the recovery, as it pushes central banks to boost interest rates and cool down the economies that have been the engine of growth.
"With U.K. inflation running well ahead of European inflation, concerns are growing that the Bank of England may feel compelled to raise rates sooner rather than later," said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson.
- U.K. inflation leaps to 8-month high
- Inflation imbalances put developed, emerging markets at odds
- Inflation the euro zone's latest headache
Citigroup falls shy of estimates Citigroup Inc. today missed analysts' estimates on fourth-quarter results, but still marked a stunning turnaround and lower loan losses.
Citigroup earned $1.31-billion (U.S.) or 4 cents a share, rebounding from a loss of $7.58-billion or 33 cents a year earlier. It's the first year of profit for chief executive officer Vikram Pandit, who took the position in late 2007. Analysts had been expecting 8 cents, according to Reuters.
Revenue jumped to $18.4-billion, higher than a year earlier, but down from the third quarter.
"They deserve a pat on the back but I don't think anybody is taking victory laps yet at Citigroup," William Fitzpatrick, a portfolio manager at Optique Capital Management LLC, told Bloomberg News. "There's a long way to go. It was a $50 stock four years 1 ago, it's now $5."
Boeing delays Dreamliner Boeing Co. announced another setback for its 787 Dreamliner today, pushing back its first deliver until the third quarter. The initial delivery was to have been made to All Nippon Airways next month.
This latest setback, sparked by a fire last year that prompted the airline manufacturer to hold off testing, means the Dreamliner is now three years past its original proposed date.
Brand names pick up Some of the world's big brand names are doing well.
At an investors conference today, Hugo Boss AG projected results will show 2010 was a record year, while, separately, Burberry PLC surged on projections its profit will be at the top end of forecasts.
In early December, Harry Winston Diamond Corp. reported a pickup in demand for luxury goods, while, last week, Tiffany & Co. raised its outlook for the fiscal year that ends this month.
In Personal Finance today
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's crackdown on debt will save borrowers from themselves, something Americans should have done years ago, writes Personal Finance columnist Rob Carrick.
Harlequin among publishers to delve into personal finance books aimed at women.
Customize your travel itinerary for far less than you'd pay on a group tour.
From today's Report on Business