Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza looks to throw a pass during the school's NFL pro day earlier this month in Bloomington, Ind.Aj Mast/The Associated Press
Don’t expect a run of quarterbacks to go off the board in the first round of this year’s NFL draft like what happened in 2021 and 2024.
There figures to be a long gap between Fernando Mendoza’s coronation as the expected No. 1 pick by the Las Vegas Raiders and when the second quarterback on most public big boards, Ty Simpson, is expected to go.
Oddsmakers have Simpson as a slight favourite to be picked in Round 1 with the over/under of his selection spot at 24 1/2. But if he falls even a little bit, this could be the rare first round with only one quarterback.
There have been only two drafts in the past 24 years with only one first-round quarterback, with Kenny Pickett the lone selection in 2022 at pick 20 and EJ Manuel at No. 16 in 2013.
There have been an average of 3.3 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the last 12 drafts, including a record-tying six in 2024 and five each in 2021 and 2018. One quarterback who likely would have gone high in the first round this year if he left college was Oregon’s Dante Moore, who opted to stay in school for another year in a decision made easier because of NIL.
There have been four drafts since 2000 with only one first-round quarterback and in all of those the most successful QB went off the board later than Round 1. Brock Purdy was the final pick in 2022 after Pickett went to Pittsburgh, and Geno Smith went in Round 2 in 2013 after Manuel.
Two of the greatest quarterbacks ever also were picked after a lone first-rounder, with Drew Brees going in the second round in 2001 after Michael Vick went No. 1 overall and Tom Brady being a sixth-rounder the previous year after Chad Pennington went in Round 1.
Assuming the Raiders pick Mendoza, it will be their first time taking a QB in Round 1 since 2007, when they took JaMarcus Russell first overall before he became one of the biggest draft busts ever.
Only three teams have gone longer without taking a quarterback in Round 1 of the common draft, with Seattle’s last coming in 1993 with Rick Mirer, Dallas in 1989 with Troy Aikman and New Orleans in 1971 with Archie Manning.
New Cincinnati Bengal Dexter Lawrence II speaks during a press conference on Monday in Cincinnati, following his trade from the New York Giants.Jeff Dean/The Associated Press
Trades shake up the draft
One year after every team entered the draft with a first-round pick for the first time since the start of the common draft in 1967, there have been plenty of picks moving, with the latest coming when Cincinnati sent the 10th pick to the New York Giants for Dexter Lawrence.
There have been only five times in the common draft era that at least six teams made multiple first-round picks in the same draft, with the record being set in 2022 when nine teams did it. There were six in 2020, 1989, 1974 and 1973.
The teams other than the Giants with multiple first-rounders are the New York Jets, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami and Dallas. The teams without a first-rounder are Cincinnati, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Jacksonville and Denver.
Barring a trade, the Jaguars won’t make a pick in the first round for the first time since entering the NFL in 1995 thanks to the deal during last year’s draft to move up to pick Travis Hunter second overall.
The 31 straight drafts with at least one first-rounder for Jacksonville is the fourth-longest streak in the common draft era, according to Sportradar. The second-longest streak also will end without a trade as the Bengals last sat out the first round in 1989.
Pittsburgh holds the record for the most consecutive years with a first-round pick with 52 from 1968-2019, while Detroit could take over the longest active streak at 33 years if the Lions make a pick in Round 1.
The Giants now have the rare opportunity to make two picks in the top 10 with their own at No. 5 and the 10th pick from the Bengals. New York did that in 2022 when the team took Kayvon Thibodeaux with the fifth pick and Evan Neal at No. 7 with a pick acquired from Chicago in a 2021 draft-day trade.
There have been four other times in the previous 25 drafts that a team made two top-10 picks, with all of them happening since 2018 when Cleveland took Baker Mayfield first and Denzel Ward fourth.
The Jets got AP offensive and defensive rookies of the year Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner in 2022, Houston took C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson in 2023 and Chicago got Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze two years ago.
Buckeyes could dominate top of the draft
Ohio State could dominate the start of the draft with Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs and Carnell Tate all having a chance to go in the top 10.
The last time a school had four top-10 picks came in the first year of the common draft when Michigan State had Bubba Smith go first, Clint Jones second, George Webster fifth and Gene Washington eighth.