Texas wide receiver Matthew Golden makes the catch against Arizona State during overtime in the quarter-finals of a College Football Playoff game on Jan. 1, 2025, in Atlanta. Texas won 39-31 in two overtime periods.John Bazemore/The Associated Press
In the first round of the College Football Playoff, the teams seeded 5-8 all won.
In the second round, they all won again.
The moral of this story: Who knows, other than something doesn’t totally add up when not a single one of the top four teams, all of which received the advantage of a first-round bye, advances into college football’s final four.
The semi-finals are set: Next Thursday in the Orange Bowl, it will be No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame. Then, Friday in the Cotton Bowl, it will be No. 5 Texas vs. No. 8 Ohio State.
Appropriately enough considering the way the second round played out, it’s the team with the worst seed, the Buckeyes, who are now the favourite – and fairly overwhelmingly at that – listed at 11-to-10 to win it all by the BetMGM Sportsbook.
These matchups ensure that a team with a long pedigree and a big name will carry the championship trophy when the first 12-team playoff concludes in Atlanta on Jan. 20.
Also, the Penn State-Notre Dame matchup guarantees either James Franklin or Marcus Freeman will have a chance to become the first Black coach to win the title at college football’s highest level.
One thing this expanded tournament could still use – a well-played, truly great football game. Other than the two-overtime win by Texas over Arizona State on Wednesday, all these playoff games have been double-digit snoozefests.
A quick look at the four contenders.
No. 5 Texas (13-2)
The story: The Longhorns are 0-2 against Georgia and don’t have to worry about the Dawgs any more. They are 13-0 against the rest of the country.
The player: Receiver Matthew Golden had seven catches for 149 yards, a touchdown and a key two-point conversion in the second overtime in the win over Arizona State to help erase a lot of questionable stuff by his quarterback, Quinn Ewers.
Money matters: The On3 NIL tracker has Arch Manning – nephew of Peyton and Eli – leading the country at US$6.6-million in earnings. Not bad for a backup quarterback, though Manning stepped in capably, starting two games in place of the injured Ewers in September to guide the Longhorns to wins.
History’s mysteries: The program with the third-most bowl appearances hasn’t won a national title since 2005. Before that, it was 1981.
No. 6 Penn State (13-2)
The story: After a loss to Oregon in the Big Ten title game, Franklin’s record against teams in the AP Top 10 dropped to 3-19. Oregon isn’t playing any more; Ohio State is, and Franklin’s record against the Buckeyes is 1-10.
The player: Tyler Warren might have played himself into the top tight end on the NFL draft board this season. In the 31-14 win over Boise State, two of his six catches were for touchdowns.
Money matters: Quarterback Drew Allar makes around US$4-million. He has committed to returning for his senior season, though this strong playoff run might change the calculus.
History’s mysteries: The Nittany Lions and Notre Dame used to be the country’s two most notable independents, so it made sense they played every year from 1981-1992. But their only bowl meeting was a little-noticed 20-9 Notre Dame win in the 1976 Gator Bowl.
No. 7 Notre Dame (13-1)
The story: When the Irish lost 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, Notre Dame’s odds of winning the national title ballooned to 100-1. Twelve wins later, including two by double digits in the playoffs, and they are listed at 7-1.
The player: Let’s give this one to a coach. Marty Biagi is in charge of the special-teams unit that returned a kickoff for a touchdown, kicked three field goals and baited Georgia into a key offsides penalty in the fourth quarter by quickly subbing out its entire punt team for the offence on fourth-and-one.
Money matters: QB Riley Leonard is thought to be making around US$1-million after his move to the South Bend from Duke.
History’s mysteries: Until Thursday, Notre Dame hadn’t won a big-time bowl game since Jan. 1, 1994, when it beat Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. The program that gave us everyone from The Gipper to Joe Montana seeks its first title since 1988.
No. 8 Ohio State (12-2)
The story: After punctuating a fourth straight loss to Michigan by standing on the field looking lost while the Wolverines triggered a melee by planting the team flag at the 50-yard line, there was good reason to think coach Ryan Day could only keep his job by somehow rallying to win a national title that felt unlikely.
The player: WR Jeremiah Smith has 290 yards and four touchdowns in the playoffs. He cradelled in a pair of one-handed catches in an early-season win over Michigan State that put the label “playmaker” all over this highly touted freshman.
Money matters: Smith is thought to have around US$3.7-million in NIL deals.
History’s mysteries: With Urban Meyer coaching, Ohio State won the CFP’s first playoff, the four-team affair that closed out the 2014 season. Since then, the Buckeyes are 3-4 over five playoff appearances.