Take an NHL team that has given up nearly two dozen more goals than it's scored while 5-on-5, and subtract its best even-strength scorer.
Then, pit it against a Western Conference powerhouse that has won seven in a row - and watch the logic crumble.
The Montreal Canadiens arrested a three-game losing slide last night, by beating the Vancouver Canucks 3-2, despite being thoroughly dominated in all facets of the game (the Habs were outshot 47-28) except the one that matters most: the scoreboard.
That they were able to open the post-Mike Cammalleri era with a win makes it all the more remarkable (the Habs' top goal scorer will miss the next six weeks with a knee injury).
But Canadiens forward Mathieu Darche, a 33-year-old journeyman who would notch his fourth point in seven games with the club last night, predicted it, taking the counterintuitive view to the 26-goal scorer's absence.
"I'm not going to say we're a better team without him, but maybe it forces guys to play a bit more of a simple game because we've got one less skill guy in there," he said earlier this week. "It's going to get done with hard work and playing more of a north-south game."
Perhaps belief of the type exhibited by Darche will be the key ingredient to staying in the playoff race.
"At the end of November, we had a stretch of six games against some big teams and we took eight points out of 12 with a beat-up team ... the players had responded well," Habs head coach Jacques Martin said before the game.
If there is pride to be taken from winning ugly, the Habs could be a very proud team indeed.
There's no better example than the winning goal, where Montreal centre Tomas Plekanec golfed his 14th of the season up and over Vancouver goalie Roberto Luongo midway through the third period; the Canucks were outshooting the home side 36-24 at the time.
Then, there's the play of Montreal goaltender Jaroslav Halak, who seemingly looked behind him after every Vancouver shot in the third, but managed to hold it together and make a half-dozen spectacular saves en route to being named the game's first star.
In a game that featured stretches of wobbly goaltending at both ends of the ice, some spirited play in the second period, and plenty of animosity.
Luongo, pulled in his last game after giving up three goals to the Toronto Maple Leafs, was in a giving mood once again, while opposite number Halak, starting the game after a loss for the first time this season, overcame a shaky first frame to keep his team in it.
The Canadiens are the worst team in the NHL's Eastern Conference while playing 5-on-5, and in the early going it showed.
With regulars such as winger Andrei Kostitsyn and defencemen Paul Mara and Jaroslav Spacek also sidelined through injury, Montreal coach Jacques Martin had to make do with call-ups Matt D'Agostini and Ben Maxwell up front.
It would take five minutes for the home side to notch their first shot, the Canucks top line of the Sedin twins and Alex Burrows created all manner of havoc in the opening minute. Halak was forced to make two saves in quick succession on Henrik Sedin after crossing up his defencemen with a poor pass.
Moments later, Canadiens winger Sergei Kostitsyn, who had only one assist to show for his last 18 games, conjured up a bit of dazzle at the other end, benefiting from Benoit Pouliot's clever steal of the puck (Pouliot had two assists on the night) to cut inside Ryan Kesler and beat Luongo from the slot for just his second of the season.
It was the Canadiens' second shot of the game, and the first time they had scored an even-strength goal in 223 minutes 12 seconds - the last coming 10 days ago against the New York Rangers.
Maxim Lapierre, on a feed from Darche, later scored Montreal's second.
The Canucks scored both their goals on the power play: First, Mikael Samuelsson's first-period point shot bounced weakly off Halak's glove and into the net; then, Kesler banged in a third-period rebound.
But despite a furious late-game rally that had Halak doing his best impression of a drowning man in the Montreal net, the equalizer just wasn't there for the visitors.