There are any number of ways of assessing the Calgary Flames' dwindling playoff chances, but maybe the best one is this: Which two opponents would actually miss the postseason if a miracle occurs and the Flames slip into the eighth and final spot?
Hard to find them, isn't it? The Flames had one of those good news/bad trips to southern California that, at another time of year, when the points weren't so critical and the race wasn't so close, would probably pass muster. They secured a point in Anaheim for an overtime defeat Sunday to the Ducks and then earned another point when they lost in a shootout to the Los Angeles Kings Monday.
Only problem is, Anaheim and Los Angeles are two of the six teams they must overhaul in order to qualify for the playoffs.
The gap between the No. 6 Chicago Blackhawks and the No. 10 Flames is just a single point, with three teams including Calgary bunched at 85 points, two others at 86, the Kings at 88 and Phoenix all alone in fourth at 89. The problem, as has been stated over and over, is that Calgary has just seven games remaining to be played, while Dallas, Nashville and Chicago all have 10, Anaheim and L.A. have nine and Phoenix has eight. Calgary is running out of games and opportunity and its season is pretty much on the line in Wednesday's date with the San Jose Sharks. But back to who might falter so that if the Flames do surge, they can make up the necessary ground in the standings.
For a time, the Ducks looked particularly vulnerable, given that they embark on a tough three-game road trip starting Wednesday night in Dallas that also takes them to Nashville and Chicago - three teams all desperate, all immersed in the same playoff race. They could conceivably lose all three. Nor does the schedule do Anaheim any favours. They play back-to-back three times in the final three weeks (Dallas and Nashville; San Jose and Dallas, and then L.A. on the final weekend of the season).
Also: Calgary gets one more crack at finally beating the Ducks at home in a week's time. Anaheim looked as if it would have issues when starting goalie and Vezina Trophy candidate Jonas Hiller went down with vertigo and dizziness almost a month ago now, but their pick-ups - Dan Ellis and Ray Emery - have done serviceable work since arriving (and Emery, the former Ottawa Senators' goalie, is the league's No. 2 star of the week).
Dallas? The Stars finish up against Columbus, Colorado twice and then Minnesota - all dead in the race and not playing well very to boot. It is hard to imagine the Stars on the outside looking in.
Same goes for Phoenix, which has five more games in a row at home starting tonight - St. Louis, Columbus, San Jose, Dallas and then Colorado. The hardest part of their schedule comes right at the end - a home-and-home with the Sharks, but at that point, they should be firmly in the playoff mix, leaving the final the two games to determine first place in the division and the No. 3 overall seed.
Nashville won its last two games - against Detroit and Buffalo - in dramatic fashion and gets Edmonton at home tonight. The Oilers could do the Flames a big favour by knocking off the Preds, who have seven of the last nine at home, and finish with three fading squads: Atlanta, Columbus and St. Louis. For a team that prides itself on taking nothing for granted, and rarely losing against opponents that they should defeat, it would take a major reversal of recent form for the Predators to hit the skids now.
Surprisingly, that leaves only Chicago, the defending Stanley Cup champions, as a team that faces a challenge. The only gimme appears to be tomorrow's home date with Florida and even that match is fraught with peril, given that the Panthers knocked them off only last week and will be singularly motivated again because their general manager, Dale Tallon, is the former Chicago GM and a win against his old squad would be a sweet victory for the ex-Blackhawk boss.
Chicago has an Original Six back-to-back test coming up (Detroit, Boston); must travel to Montreal and then play St. Louis at home the next night; and then finish with a home-and-home series against the Red Wings, their archrivals. The Blackhawks need to be sharp down the stretch to have any chance of defending their title and they may need to do it without Patrick Sharp, the all-star game MVP and the team's leading goal-scorer, who suffered a knee injury of undisclosed severity Sunday night.
In short, even though the standings look deceptively close, it is a long way back for the Flames, after earning just two of a possible four points to start the road trip. The players are at that stage of the season when they're are saying all the right things and all making the appropriate noises about the challenges that the arithmetic represents. Indeed, both California games - against Anaheim and Los Angeles - were exceptionally entertaining. The Flames and Kings play similar bruising styles and it was a tong war on Monday night, minus the sort of cheap shots that often creep into these playoff-style games. Calgary was even up a goal early in the shootout, but couldn't nail it down.
In an age of parity, where the line between victory and defeat is so fine, you only get so many chances to pile up the points - and unhappily for the Flames, two of those opportunities slipped through their fingers in the last 48 hours.