Graham Hughes
So here's a cheery thought for Montreal Canadiens fans fulminating over the recent goalless drought: if the Habs lose against Atlanta on Tuesday at home, they go into Carolina on Wednesday (the second of back-to-back games for both teams) knowing that a loss would tip them into a furious late-season scramble to get into the postseason.
Has anyone considered the possibility the Habs would have to win in Toronto on the last day of the season to make the playoffs?
Montreal, which has six games left, has a seven-point cushion on the ninth-place Canes, who have seven games to play. That should be insurmountable and almost certainly is.
But. And there's always a but.
If Montreal loses their four-pointer on Wednesday - and this is assuming a Canes loss to Washington the previous night - Carolina could overtake the Canadiens even if they go 3-2 in their last five, which includes dates with the Sabres and Red Wings (as a point of reference, the Canes are 4-2 in their most recent six games).
That would of course require an epic collapse on the part of the Habs and a nine-game losing streak to close out the season - a very remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.
Unless the Habs find a way to stick some wins together this week, which they close out against New Jersey and traditional nemesis Martin Brodeur on Saturday, they will be hard-pressed to hold on to sixth place in the conference, and are likely lining themselves up to start the playoffs in either Washington or Philadelphia (or possibly Pittsburgh).
The Rangers and Canadiens are currently tied on points, but the Blueshirts are 8-1-1 in their last ten games, and Buffalo, just two points behind, are on a 6-3-1 sequence.
Both could leapfrog the Habs this week if Montreal's current three-game slide lengthens, although the Rangers and Sabres face each other Wednesday, which will benefit the Canadiens as long as the game is decided in regulation.
Anyway, if Montreal loses against the Thrashers, it's conceivable that they could go into Raleigh with a chance to fall into eighth (assuming Buffalo beats Toronto on Monday and the Rangers and Sabres go to overtime or a shootout on Wednesday).
The Leafs remain part of the conversation as well, but would need to beat Buffalo and Boston this week - which seems an unlikely double - and probably have to run the table over the next two weeks just to have a shot.
Another aspect to consider is that the Habs have only two home games left (the other is against Chicago next week), and so will be trying to right their listing ship on the road in hostile buildings, where they have lost more games than they've won this year.
To repeat: missing the playoffs remains a very unlikely scenario (1.5 per cent, according to the simulations at SporstClubStats.com), but this suggests the Tuesday nighter against the Thrash is pretty important, no?
A Montreal win and Carolina loss on Tuesday means the cushion would be nine points, which should be ballgame over.
But if the Habs lose and the Canes win, the gap is five, with Carolina, who have had Montreal's number in must-win games in the past, standing a chance to close it to three at home.
Cue the cold sweats in Habs nation if that happens.
There's every chance that it won't - a win here and an overtime point there would get Montreal across the finish line - but as Renton says to his mate in Trainspotting, "It's a tightrope, Spud. It's a (effing) tightrope."