Skip to main content

The scourge of the world's bookmakers is no more.

Paul the Octopus, the tentacled tipster who cost the betting industry more than $1.5-million last summer with his unerringly accurate FIFA World Cup predictions, passed away in his tank in the Oberhausen Sea Life Centre in Germany early Tuesday morning.

Despite rumours that he may well have predicted his own death - "If he did, he kept it to himself," an aquarium spokesperson said - Paul's prognostications during the month-long soccer showpiece in South Africa ensured his two and half years on this planet will not soon be forgotten.

As the tributes poured in - "R.I.P. to Paul The Octopus. That was my homie," tweeted NBA star Carmelo Anthony - it's worth remembering the scale of Paul's accomplishments.

On eight different occasions, the celebrity cephalopod was offered the choice between two mussel-filled boxes representing two countries about to play a match, and each time he picked the eventual winner. Besides predicting Spain's victory over the Netherlands in the World Cup final, he also forecasted Germany's five wins and two losses in the tournament.

How difficult was that?

Graham Sharpe, a spokesman for British bookmaker William Hill, estimates the odds of picking eight straight winners at more than 300 to 1.

"Bettors around the world made small fortunes based on Paul's uncanny picks," Mr. Sharpe said. "We had people coming in asking who Paul had picked before they placed their bets.

"It's one of the finest tipping feats ever."

Mr. Sharpe said anyone who had bet $20 on Paul's picks from the start of the World Cup and who then let it ride throughout the tournament would have walked away with about $4,500.

Still, despite the costs he incurred for the bookmaking industry, he will be missed.

"In all seriousness we're sorry to see the back of him," Mr. Sharpe said. "What he did do was create a lot of interest in football betting from people who would otherwise not have bothered - they thought they had discovered an infallible system for picking winners."

Born in Weymouth, England, in 2008, Paul decamped for Germany shortly afterwards, getting his big break in the guessing game during the 2008 European Championship when he successfully picked the results of four of Germany's six matches. Worldwide fame would follow during last summer's World Cup, but though he scaled back his oracle duties afterwards to concentrate on his day job of entertaining children at the aquarium, he appears at first glance to have been struck down in the prime of life.

Not so, says one expert.

"Octopuses are not known for longevity," Sandra Millen, professor of zoology at the University of British Columbia. "They generally grow to maturity, breed and die. … They are not long-lived critters. A year or two is quite common."

Prof. Millen also chalks up his success to "a wonderful coincidence," explaining that although octopuses "are probably the smartest of the invertebrates, their brain activity is not known to be high. They would probably be not as smart as most birds."

As for how Paul would have made his predictions then, Prof. Millen referred to a term familiar to many a punter - by a nose.

"He would smell the mussels," she said. "It wouldn't matter if they were bigger or smaller as long as they were about equal mass so that he got the scent."

Paul is set to be cremated in the next few days, with his ashes placed in an urn and displayed at the Sea Life Centre in a shrine, complete with a portrait and video clips of his life.

"We've already set up a condolence book where people can write their tributes to Paul," an aquarium spokesperson said.

He is also due to feature in a documentary set for release early next year.

Follow related authors and topics

Authors and topics you follow will be added to your personal news feed in Following.

Interact with The Globe