U.S. President Donald Trump, with FIFA president Gianni Infantino looking on, has threatened to move FIFA World Cup games in his country away from cities he deems unsafe.Evan Vucci/The Associated Press
A few weeks ago, Cristiano Ronaldo was ejected from an international game after attempting to elbow an opponent. This wasn’t one of those sneaky ‘I’m just claiming space’ elbows. It was a swinging, sledgehammer effort.
By clearly stated rule, that’s a three-match ban. Since qualifying was nearing its end, Ronaldo’s World Cup was in jeopardy.
A week later, he was the date of Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman at a White House reception. At the dinner, U.S. President Donald Trump told a story about how his son “respects his father a little bit more now” because he’d introduced him to Ronaldo.
A week after that, FIFA decided that a one-game suspension will do. Ronaldo will be on probation during the World Cup. If he elbows anybody else, then he’s in real trouble. This is a new rule that FIFA just came up with.
That’s what has convinced me – the 2026 World Cup will be the one that runs off the rails.
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Every World Cup is a disaster before it starts. The buildings aren’t built. The hotels are crap. It’s too hot or too cold. The buses don’t run. The black widow bombers are coming.
Just as predictably, every World Cup ends up fine. Brazil 2014 started with riot police in running battles with protesters at the security perimeter of the opening game. It ended in national celebration. Most of Brazil resented it, but they still wanted to give themselves a victory lap.
FIFA doesn’t care how you manage that, or how much you like managing it, just that you do. They don’t mind about your politics, as long as you understand how things work.
They awarded the 1978 World Cup to Argentina in 1966. Ten years later, there was a coup. By the time the tournament began, Argentina was controlled by a murderous junta and falling into poverty and despair. No problem.
They put up walls along the main roads so that visitors couldn’t see just how bad things had gotten. There was a torture centre across the way from the main stadium that everyone knew about, but no one mentioned. There was widespread suggestion that some games were fixed.
Trump will be front and centre on Friday, when he hosts the World Cup draw in Washington.BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
But it looked great on TV and Argentina won in the end. That tournament is remembered as an all-timer.
The World Cup’s secret sauce is that for the however many weeks they’re playing this thing, FIFA is in control. The full concentration and power of the host nation is sublimated to a sporting organization that will do whatever is in the best interest of the event. But not this time.
The Ronaldo fiasco is proof – Trump is in control. I’m not suggesting he fixed the suspension, but that the mere possibility of his displeasure was enough to make the world’s most powerful sporting body turtle. Now every athlete with a passport can come begging to Trump for intercession, like guests at a Corleone wedding.
A couple of weeks ago, Trump threatened to remove World Cup games from cities with security “problems” (read: Democratic mayors). The president told reporters that he wants the games where they are “appreciated and safe.”
How about policed and organized? Because they won’t be if you start switching Boston for Jackson, Miss. at the last minute.
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FIFA president Gianni Infantino was standing beside Trump when he made this remarkable statement during an Oval Office press conference. The obvious answer is, ‘We’ll see,’ and then you don’t bother seeing.
Instead, Infantino caved – “I think safety and security is the number one priority for a successful World Cup.”
At a guess, Infantino is relying on a magic that has always worked for FIFA against every sort of rascal in charge. That when it comes down to it, all of the world’s jumped-up generalissimos fall to their knees in front of the magnificence that is the world’s most revered sporting event. That the World Cup has its own gravity, which no politician can resist.
Except that Trump can. He is an American raised in the 1950s and 60s. What does he care about soccer? If this were the Super Bowl, then maybe. But a bunch of shrimpy foreigners rolling around on the ground like they’ve been brained with frying pans? Nuh-uh.
Whenever he talks about the World Cup, you can see Trump’s joy in mischief coming out. He can’t just say that he likes it or is looking forward to it. He has to use it as a provocation. Often, Infantino is standing beside him, with the faraway look of a man wondering how big the private island they promised him will be.
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As with any other World Cup, you could imagine all sorts of flashpoints at the next one.
What if ICE starts rounding up people at fan zones? What if a rogue shooter gets loose? What if it’s a fiasco in airports as visitors start arriving? What if fans start dropping in the July heat in Miami or Arlington?
In the past, with FIFA in charge and the real news choked off by sports updates and everyone pulling robotically toward the championship game, all of this is surmountable.
But this time, the tournament is subject to the whims of a man who doesn’t care about the game, loves causing trouble and knows he will get his way. He isn’t interested in the tournament’s PR value or in selling America to the world. Based on his five years in charge, what he wants, always, is tumult.
The World Cup presents Trump with a unique opportunity in that regard. It’s a vehicle with which to toy with the people’s affections and watch them squirm, as Trump has with trade. It’s a tool you can use to favour your friends and humiliate your opponents. Most of all, it’s six straight weeks of undivided global attention.
Will the 2026 World Cup run as hoped, or will it be the first one to turn truly chaotic? That’s up to the guy in charge. For the first time, that guy doesn’t give a damn about soccer, or match schedules, or meeting financial projections. What he likes is the hurly burly of conflict, regardless of whether the battle is lost or won.