Yellow cards are wiped from a player's disciplinary record at the start of the knockout stage, meaning Luc de Fougerolles and other Canadian defenders are no longer at risk of being suspended.Lee Smith/Reuters
South Africa Sports Minister Gayton McKenzie on Friday morning enthusiastically predicted the outcome of Sunday’s World Cup round-of-32 match against Canada in Los Angeles: 3-0, South Africa.
Mark Carney’s Twitter on Friday – and the Prime Minister isn’t shy to wear a Canadian jersey cheering on the home team – focused on restoring 24 Sussex, public safety and the economy.
Probably for the best.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and his wife, Diana Fox Carney, cheer for the home team during Canada's recent World Cup loss to Switzerland in Vancouver.Lee Smith/Reuters
Canada and South Africa are both in the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time. Canada ranks 30th in FIFA’s tally of teams; South Africa is 60th. Stalwart Canadian defender Alistair Johnston on Thursday foresaw a “track meet” against South Africa.
Should be fun. Kickoff is 3 p.m. ET. The winner plays either Netherlands (FIFA-ranked eighth) or Morocco (seventh) on July 4 in Houston.
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Scoring
Canada had been in a scoring slump for months ahead of the World Cup. The team managed one in its opener against 64th-ranked Bosnia-Herzegovina and one against 19th-ranked Switzerland. Against 56th-ranked Qatar, Canada blasted in two while the Qataris were at full strength, a third after Qatar’s first red card and three more after their second.
Is the scoring slump really over? Data suggest Canada is pressing, getting close.
Coach Jesse Marsch on Thursday pointed to FIFA advanced stats that show Canada strong on “expected goals.” Against Switzerland, Canada had 1.61 expected goals, and lost 2-1. Against Bosnia, the computers calculated Canada’s expected goals at 1.49 – in a 1-1 draw.
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Against South Africa, the absence of injured midfielder Ismaël Koné will hurt, given his ability to get the ball upfield. But on Friday, the first day of rain in Vancouver in a while after a long sunny stretch, forward Tani Oluwaseyi said film study has shown the team how to take advantage of the South Africans.
“There’s players that we have who we think match up well against them,” Oluwaseyi said. “We’ll find spaces to play.”
Score first, control the game, get to the round of 16 – which, for Canada, would really be the soccer stratosphere on the game’s premier stage. Getting there would truly transform this up-and-down journey through the tournament into a major success.
The mystical Promise David
The 24-year-old substitute striker came on in the 75th minute against Switzerland, the score 2-0 and the necessary draw to stay in Vancouver looking out of reach. Seconds later, David scored a beautiful goal, a diving right-footed shot from an even more beautiful left-footed cross at the top of the box from Nathan Saliba, Koné’s replacement, after perfectly corralling a long pass.
Should David start on Sunday? One wonders. Perhaps it’s a gamble but sitting back is not Marsch’s style, and Sunday is winning time.
David is well known for his voluble and magnetic personality. In May, chatting with the CBC, he said he would score in Vancouver at the World Cup: “I have this weird thing where I can call out goals before I score them.”
Promise David lunges to redirect the ball into the Swiss net, cutting Canada's deficit to 2-1 in Vancouver on Wednesday.Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press
Farewell, yellow cards
Every country’s reprimand slate is forgiven but Canada is probably among the bigger beneficiaries. The end of the group stage wipes clean all yellow cards. This includes striker Cyle Larin but, more importantly, three pillars of the back line: Johnston, Derek Cornelius and Luc de Fougerolles.
One can’t know for sure but against Switzerland three yellows among the defenders, with one more for each meaning missing the round of 32, must have held them back a little bit, even as Canadians were obviously physical with the Swiss.
Canada’s defence can play full throttle against South Africa.
Alphonso Davies
Will he play? Maybe. Is Bayern secretly not allowing him to play? Maybe.
What’s unfortunate is, on Wednesday, more than 52,000 people at a sold-out BC Place, most of them in Canadian red, had been promised a Davies appearance by Marsch. But, surprise, it was only ineffectual gamesmanship. Davies, almost exactly a decade ago, made his MLS debut at the same stadium for the Vancouver Whitecaps as a 15-year-old wunderkind.
And it was at Los Angeles Stadium, usually known as SoFi, where Davies in early 2025 blew his ACL playing for Canada. That fateful day sparked everything after, from Bayern animosity towards Marsch to three recent hamstring injuries for Davies.
Davies, shown lining up for the national anthems before the Switzerland match, was an unused substitute in the Group B finale.Agustin Marcarian/Reuters
Home-field disadvantage?
Obviously getting a draw or win against Switzerland to top Group B and play the round of 32 at home in Vancouver and thereafter, with a win, the round of 16, would have been ideal. Yet Marsch and players have talked about how the World Cup bright lights – from the pressure on the pitch to all the noise and attention off of it – had affected them.
This is a team accustomed to being a wandering soccer band. Its best tournament was Copa America in 2024, a surprise fourth-place finish, where all the games were in the United States, though Canada didn’t play at SoFi.
After the Swiss loss, it almost certainly looked like Canada would play higher-ranked South Korea, 25th on FIFA’s table.
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To instead face South Africa, with a real shot at the round of 16, is perhaps cosmic reparations from the capricious sporting gods, after they cursed Canada last winter with terrible luck in Italy at the Winter Olympics. Nathan MacKinnon, we hardly want to remember, was possessed by a beer-league schlub and missed a wide-open net in the hockey gold-medal final tied at one with about 10 minutes left against the Americans.
Gifts must be seized. Anything can happen on Sunday but it’d be a real faceplant to lose the game. Canada, even without Davies and other top names, can and should beat South Africa.
On Friday, when a reporter asked Oluwaseyi about the South African minister’s 3-0 prediction, a slight smile crept across his face. Then it broadened.
“Fair enough to him, he has to say what he has to say,” Oluwaseyi replied. “It’s up to us to prove him wrong.”