Market Attractiveness
Economy: B-
Demographics: C
Market Size: C
Corporate presence: C+
Its economy weathered the recent recession as well as any in Canada. Characterized by slow and steady growth over the past 15 years. Winnipeg's population of about 750,000 is growing at about three times the rate it was when the Jets left town in 1996 and its unemployment rate is well below the Canadian average. Its median household income is in line with the Canadian average, while the corporate presence is small but boasts more head offices than Ottawa. It citizens have shown the ability to pay for top-flight entertainment, making the MTS Centre the third-busiest building in Canada.
Overall Market Attractiveness Grade: C+
Critical Factors
Potential Ownership: A
Arena and Location: B+
Competition and Barriers to Entry: A
The MTS Centre has a great downtown location, but with just more than 15,000 seats and 50 corporate boxes, it is small by NHL standards. There is competition of a smaller scale in the CFL's Winnipeg Blue Bombers and independent pro baseball's Goldeyes. Potential owners Mark Chipman and David Thomson combine a strong local presence with immense wealth.
Final Grade for viability: B
Its smallish population base and corporate presence would make Winnipeg vulnerable to an economic downturn or slump in the Canadian dollar. And unlike the six existing Canadian clubs, it couldn't spend to the maximum on players. But the commitment of ownership, new building and resilient economy make this a viable option for the NHL.
Winnipeg
NHL history: Winnipeg Jets (1979-96) moved to become the Phoenix Coyotes.
Potential Owners: Mark Chipman, chairman of True North Sports and Entertainment, and partner David Thompson, chairman of Woodbridge Co. Ltd., whose net worth of $19-billion makes him the wealthiest person in Canada.
Demographic snapshot
Metro Population: 741,000
Median Household income: $58,128 (Canadian average $59,090)
Average Household disposable income: $52,000 (Canadian average $56,000)
Average Household net worth: $291,034 (Canadian average $351,282)
Percentage of population aged 25-39: 21 per cent (Canadian average 20 per cent)
Index for watching NHL hockey on television: 104 (Canadian average 100)
Economic snapshot
Number of head offices: 128
Unemployment rate: 5.7 per cent (Canadian average 8.1)
Number of businesses with 100-plus employees: 520
Number of businesses with $20-million-plus in sales: 619
Number of businesses with 100-plus employees and $20-million-plus in sales: 272
Population rate of growth: 1.3 per cent
GDP growth: 2.2 per cent
Retail sales: $9.7-Billion
Sports competition in market: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (CFL), Winnipeg Goldeyes (Northern League Baseball).
Arena
MTS Centre, located in downtown Winnipeg, opened in 2004. Seats 15,015 with 50 luxury suites.
Has Going For It: Slow but steady growth in an increasingly diversified economy. Population growth significantly stronger than when the Jets left 14 years ago. A building deemed suitable by both potential owners and the NHL. Potential ownership group with the wealth to sustain losses in down years.
Has Going Against It: Would be the NHL's smallest market, making more vulnerable to a downturn in the economy or a dive by the Canadian dollar. Would likely have to compete at the mid-range between NHL's salary floor and ceiling. Number of large companies roughly half of smallest existing Canadian markets. Market has not historically always supported losing teams.
What they're saying: "We've tested using pricing that has existed in relative Canadian markets … Ottawa, Edmonton and Calgary to a lesser extent. When we test those average ticket prices, and the suite prices, and the pricing of the menu on corporate sponsorship that you need to sell, it hasn't caused any concern or alarm with any of our existing sponsors or perspective ones."
Mark Chipman, chairman, True North Sports and Entertainment.
What Gary Bettman says: "There's never been any doubt about the passion of fans, people in Winnipeg for NHL hockey. … It's always been a good hockey market. If you talk to the people who are interested in having a franchise in Winnipeg now, they'll tell you compared to what's going on in the rest of North America, the economy is pretty strong and they have no doubts with the economic viability."
Professor Norm O'Reilly's scorecard
Market Attractiveness
Economy: B-
Demographics: C
Market size: C
Corporate presence: C+
Overall score for market attractiveness: C+
Franchise viability
Arena and location: B+
Competition and barriers to entry: A
Potential owner (Mark Chipman, David Thomson): A
Final grade: B
What Norm O'Reilly says: "With the right owner, and the right management team, and the right overall philosophy, you could make it work. You'd have to accept probably not having a high-paid team on the ice. You're going to fill 80 to 90 per cent of your building with an average team so your risks are mitigated a bit. With a few factors in play, with the current economic situation, it could work. Long term? That's a question."
Note: Norm O'Reilly's evaluations are based on his own background and knowledge of the subject, transcripts of interviews done by TSN/The Globe and Mail for this series and data collected from various sources, including Statistics Canada, the Conference Board of Canada and Environics.