Labour candidate Andy Burnham delivers a speech in Wigan on June 13 ahead of the June 18 by-election in the riding of Makerfield.Temilade Adelaja/Reuters
It’s not often that a simple parliamentary by-election can determine the political fate of a prime minister. But that’s what is at stake Thursday when voters in a Manchester-area constituency cast their ballots.
The by-election in the riding of Makerfield has taken on outsized importance because of the plummeting fortunes of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Despite leading Labour to a massive victory in the general election less than two years ago, Mr. Starmer’s government has struggled and his popularity has nose-dived. Some 100 backbench Labour MPs have called on him to resign, and several high-profile cabinet ministers have quit in recent weeks.
The man aiming to replace Mr. Starmer, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, is running Thursday and has made it clear that, if he wins, he will launch a leadership bid. Under Labour Party rules, any challenger must be an MP, and last month Josh Simons, the Labour MP for Makerfield, resigned to clear the way for Mr. Burnham.
It will not be plain sailing. First he’ll have to defeat Reform UK’s candidate, Robert Kenyon. The populist party has made inroads in the traditionally Labour stronghold and won every ward in last month’s council elections. Reform also tops Labour in national opinion polls.
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If Mr. Burnham wins the by-election, he will then have to take on Mr. Starmer, who has vowed to fight off any challenge, setting up months of wrangling.
“It doesn’t look to me as if Burnham is likely to get a coronation, which is obviously what he and his supporters would hope he’d get,” said Tony Travers, associate dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics.
Mr. Burnham is no stranger to political infighting. If he does challenge Mr. Starmer for the leadership of the party, it will be his third attempt. He ran unsuccessfully in 2010, finishing fourth, and again in 2015, losing to Jeremy Corbyn.
Born in Liverpool in 1970, Mr. Burnham grew up in a staunchly Labour household. His father worked for British Telecom, and his mother was a receptionist.
In a book he co-authored in 2024 called Head North: A Rallying Cry for a More Equal Britain, he explained how his views on social justice were shaped as a teenager in the 1980s, partly by watching a BBC show called Boys from the Blackstuff, which captured the hard times faced by people in England’s north during the Thatcher era.
“There was one particular episode that was very much about the decline of the Liverpool docks and I remember as a child turning to see my mum with tears coming down her face,” he wrote.
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He studied English at Cambridge University and worked briefly in journalism after graduating. He eventually landed a job with Labour MP Tessa Jowell and ran for Parliament in 2001, winning a seat in the Manchester area.
He held a couple of cabinet posts under prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown and lost his first leadership bid when Mr. Brown resigned in 2010 after Labour’s defeat in the general election.
In 2017, two years after his second leadership defeat, Mr. Burnham was elected mayor of Manchester, taking 60 per cent of the vote. He was re-elected in 2021 by an even larger margin.
He has won accolades as mayor for improving Manchester’s bus service after bringing it under public control. He also gained national prominence by taking on the Conservative government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic; he was highly critical of the lockdown measures of the time and often challenged then-prime minister Boris Johnson’s plans.
Critics argue that Mr. Burnham lacks a clear vision and vacillates on issues. Supporters say he’s an effective communicator who can take on Reform.
Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said Mr. Burnham’s ability to challenge Mr. Starmer could hinge on how well he does Thursday. A sizable victory over Reform would strengthen his case that he can revitalize Labour.
However, Dr. Ford said Mr. Burnham has a mixed track record as mayor. While he had success reforming transit, he failed to live up to his pledge to end homelessness. “The mayoral job is very different to the job of being prime minister, and although he’s taken positions on various issues, he’s often retreated from those positions under pressure,” he said.
Dr. Travers said that if Mr. Burnham does become the next prime minister, his honeymoon with voters could be short-lived. The country’s economy is stagnant, and public finances are stretched.
“If he actually wins the by-election, it’s hard to see what policy platform that has hitherto eluded the Labour Party in the nearly two years since it took office will suddenly become clear,” he said.
Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said that despite Mr. Burnham’s shortcomings, Labour MPs and supporters might welcome a change from Mr. Starmer’s lack of charisma.
“There’s something to be said for someone who can provide some sizzle − even if the sausage is essentially the same,” Dr. Bale said.