In Bolivia, voters could elect first right-wing government in over two decades

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After a lackluster campaign overshadowed by a looming economic collapse, millions of Bolivians voted on Sunday for a new president and parliament in elections that could see a right-wing government elected for the first time in over two decades.

The vote, which could spell the end of the Andean nation’s long-dominant leftist party, is one of the most consequential for Bolivia in recent times – and one of the most unpredictable. Ballot stations closed at 4 p.m. local time. Private exit polls, released as vote counting was still underway late Sunday, gave dark-horse centrist candidate Rodrigo Paz a surprise lead over the right-wing front-runners.

In the run-up to Sunday, a remarkable 30 per cent or so of voters remained undecided. Polls showed the two leading right-wing candidates, multi-millionaire business owner Samuel Doria Medina and former president Jorge Fernando “Tuto” Quiroga, locked in a virtual dead heat.

“The economy is a disaster right now, so all I could bring myself to do was vote for change,” said Eileen Mirabal, a 30-year-old psychologist and Doria Medina supporter displaying her ink-stained thumb outside a polling station in the country’s capital of La Paz.

Voting is mandatory in Bolivia, where some 7.9 million Bolivians are eligible to vote.

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“I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite,” said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of New York-based Aurora Macro Strategies firm.

The election marks a watershed moment for the Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party, whose founder, charismatic ex-president Evo Morales, rose to power as part of the “pink tide” of leftist leaders that swept into office across Latin America during the commodities boom of the early 2000s.

Now shattered by infighting, the party is battling for its survival in Sunday’s elections.

The outcome will determine whether Bolivia – a nation of 12 million people with the largest lithium reserves on Earth – follows a growing trend in Latin America, where right-wing leaders like Argentina’s libertarian Javier Milei, Ecuador’s strongman Daniel Noboa and El Salvador’s conservative populist Nayib Bukele have surged in popularity.

A right-wing government in Bolivia could trigger a major geopolitical realignment for a country now allied with Venezuela’s socialist-inspired government and world powers such as China, Russia and Iran.

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Bolivians waiting to vote at polling stations across La Paz, Bolivia’s capital, expressed confused, cynical and bitter emotions – fed by an annual inflation rate of more than 16 per cent, a scarcity of fuel and absence of hope for swift improvement.

Several said they were voting for “el menos peor,” the lesser evil.

The right-wing opposition candidates bill the race as a chance to chart a new destiny for Bolivia. But both front-runners, Mr. Doria Medina and Mr. Quiroga, have served in past neo-liberal governments and ran for president three times before – losing at least twice to Mr. Morales.

“People were waiting for a new, popular candidate, and in this, the opposition failed us,” said Ronaldo Olorio, a farmer from the coca-growing Yungas region and former Morales supporter. “My vote is one of anger, of discontent. I don’t like Doria Medina or Quiroga. But I have to vote for one of the two.”

An election day ban on the use of all but authorized vehicles left the streets of La Paz and neighbouring El Alto eerily empty on Sunday, reflecting the sombre mood. The government has also imposed a dry law forbidding the sale of alcohol and reported arresting hundreds of violators.

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Mr. Doria Medina and Mr. Quiroga have praised the Trump administration and vowed to restore ties with the United States – ruptured in 2008 when Mr. Morales expelled the American ambassador.

They also have expressed interest in doing business with Israel, which has no diplomatic relations with Bolivia, and called for foreign private companies to develop Bolivia’s rich natural resources.

After storming to office in 2006, Mr. Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, nationalized the nation’s oil and gas industry, using the profits to reduce poverty, expand infrastructure and improve the lives of the rural poor.

After three consecutive presidential terms, as well as a contentious bid for an unprecedented fourth in 2019 that set off popular unrest and led to his ouster, Mr. Morales has been barred from this race by Bolivia’s constitutional court.

His ally-turned-rival, President Luis Arce, withdrew his candidacy for the MAS due to his plummeting popularity and nominated a senior minister, Eduardo del Castillo, as the MAS candidate. Mr. Del Castillo was heckled by angry voters Sunday while casting his ballot in Bolivia’s conservative business hub of Santa Cruz.

“Why don’t you line up like we do for diesel?“ some yelled.

As the MAS party splintered, Andrónico Rodríguez, the 36-year-old president of the Senate who hails from the same union of coca farmers as Mr. Morales, launched his bid.

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Rather than back the leftist candidate once considered his heir, Mr. Morales has branded Mr. Rodríguez a traitor.

From his political stronghold in Bolivia’s tropical region of Chapare, Mr. Morales has urged his supporters to deface their ballots in protest against his disqualifaction. The long-serving leader has been holed up in Chapare for months, evading an arrest warrant on charges related to his sexual relationship with a 15-year-old girl.

Authorities have been warning that violence could erupt there as Mr. Morales’ fervent supporters mobilize against the elections.

The president of Bolivia’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal, Oscar Hassenteufel, said Sunday was “proceeding peacefully with some isolated incidents that have not affected the vote.”

In one of those incidents, a dynamite stick was tossed outside the polling station where Mr. Rodríguez planned to vote, said prosecutor Juan Carlos Campero. It exploded a few hours before the candidate’s arrival, injuring one person, he told reporters.

In another, Mr. Rodríguez was met with a barrage of bottles and rocks from Mr. Morales’ supporters as he cast his ballot. The young candidate emerged unscathed, and left without a word as the crowd shouted, “Get out!”

Nearby Morales slipped his null-and-void ballot into the box, surrounded by coca-growing union activists who formed a human chain to protect him from arrest. He flashed a rare smile as supporters showered him in white confetti.

“I’m convinced that if there’s no fraud, the null vote will win,” he told reporters after voting.

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Mr. Doria Medina and Mr. Quiroga have warned of the need for a painful fiscal adjustment, including the elimination of Bolivia’s food and fuel subsidies, to save the nation from insolvency.

Some analysts caution this risks sparking social unrest.

“A victory for either right-wing candidate could have grave repercussions for Bolivia’s Indigenous and impoverished communities,” said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network, a Bolivian research group.

“Both candidates could bolster security forces and right-wing para-state groups, paving the way for violent crackdowns on protests expected to erupt over the foreign exploitation of lithium and drastic austerity measures.”

If, as is widely expected, no presidential candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote, or 40 per cent of the vote with a lead of 10 percentage points, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on Oct. 19 for the first time since Bolivia’s 1982 return to democracy.

All 130 seats in Bolivia’s Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Parliament, are also up for grabs, along with 36 in the Senate, the upper house.