A person is tested for COVID-19 at a drive-through centre in a car park at Chessington World of Adventures, in Chessington, Greater London, on Sept. 19, 2020.Matt Dunham/The Associated Press
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to tighten rules on physical distancing and order pubs to close early in an attempt to slow a surge in COVID-19 infections that health officials say is on track to hit 50,000 new cases per day next month.
The government has been scrambling to control the rapid rise in infections without further damaging the economy. The number has reached 4,000 per day, the highest level since last spring. Officials said that figure is doubling every week, which means Britain could see 50,000 new cases daily by mid-October and more than 200 deaths per day in November.
“We have in a bad sense literally turned a corner, although only relatively recently,” Chris Whitty, the British government’s chief medical adviser, said during a televised address Monday. He added that the situation could become even worse in the months ahead. “We are now going into the seasons, late autumn and winter, which benefit respiratory viruses, and it is very likely they will benefit COVID as they do, for example, flu. So we should see this as a six-month problem that we have to deal with collectively.”
The soaring infection rate has led to increases in hospitalizations and deaths, added Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser. Almost 42,000 people have died in Britain from the disease, according to government statistics, and Sir Patrick said the country could see the daily death toll jump from about 20 to more than 200 by mid-November.
He warned that Britain was on course to follow Spain and France, where infections have come roaring back after a summer lull. The 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Spain has reached 300 per 100,000 people, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The corresponding figure in France is 192 and 71 in Britain.
“The numbers are clearly increasing and they are increasing across all age groups,” Sir Patrick said during Monday’s televised presentation. He added that only 8 per cent of the British population has been infected, which means the vast majority of people remain vulnerable.
Dr. Whitty downplayed suggestions the virus has become less virulent and said the country must act quickly to stop the spread. “This is a balance of risk,” he said. “If we don’t do enough, the virus will take off, and at the moment that is the path that we are clearly on. And if we do not change course then we’re going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem.”
Mr. Johnson has been mulling over a host of new measures to slow the infection rate but has been reluctant to impose a complete lockdown. Instead, the Prime Minister is expected to announce a series of short-term restrictions Tuesday that would last two weeks. The measures are expected to include further limitations on social interactions, orders requiring pubs and restaurants to close early and tougher enforcement action. The government is also considering closing gyms, swimming pools and some services, such as beauty salons, for the two-week period.
“The virus is spreading. We’re at a tipping point,” Health Minister Matt Hancock told the House of Commons Monday.
Much of the country, including Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow, is already living under tougher rules because of increased infection rates in those areas. Pubs and restaurants in several cities have been told to close at 10 p.m., and people are not allowed to mix with others outside their households.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan said Monday that the capital could soon follow suit and impose similar restrictions. “Londoners should also know that I am extremely concerned by the latest evidence I’ve seen from public health experts about the accelerating speed at which COVID-19 is now spreading here in London,” he said in a statement. “It is increasingly likely that, in London, additional measures will soon be required to slow the spread of the virus.”
Spain, France and several other European counties have also introduced local lockdowns. In Madrid, more than 800,000 people have been told they can only leave home for medical appointments or to go to work or schools. Local businesses must close at 10 p.m. The restrictions have prompted a backlash in several neighbourhoods, with residents saying poorer areas have been singled out more than wealthy suburbs.
Sir Patrick offered hope that a vaccine was on the horizon. He said good progress had been made on several vaccine projects and that one could be ready by the end of the year. However, he said, it was more likely that a vaccine would not be in widespread use until sometime in 2021. “In the meantime we have to get control of this … to make sure we can live with it,” he added.
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