Local election results could put more pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose Labour Party is set to lose as many as 1,800 of the 2,500 council seats it holds in England, polls show.Jack Taylor/Reuters
A series of local elections across Britain this week is widely expected to reshape the country’s political landscape and pile more pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose leadership is already in question.
Thursday’s vote could also leave Mr. Starmer facing regional governments led by sovereigntist parties − Plaid Cymru in Wales, the Scottish National Party and Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland − all bent on pulling the U.K. apart.
Mr. Starmer’s Labour Party is bracing for a particularly dismal showing. Polls show Labour is set to lose as many as 1,800 of the 2,500 council seats it holds in England. The party could also finish third in Scotland and in Wales, where it has been in government for more than a century.
The Conservatives are also in for a drubbing, polling indicates, while the big winners will be Reform UK, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats.
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The outcome “has all sorts of effects, one of which is it apparently suggests Britain has become a five-party, and in Scotland and Wales, a six-party system,” said Tony Travers, associate dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics.
Dr. Travers said a Labour wipeout could further calls for Mr. Starmer to step down. “If they did that badly, would Keir Starmer go? It’s not entirely clear. The Labour Party in Britain, historically, has been very unwilling to get rid of leaders before they want to go, whereas the Conservatives have done it regularly,” he said.
Mr. Starmer’s leadership has been under threat for months. The party has been lagging in popular support, the economy is sluggish, and Mr. Starmer’s handling of the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States last year has been criticized because of Mr. Mandelson’s ties to U.S. sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
This week’s elections are seen by many observers as the last straw for Mr. Starmer. However, no Labour prime minister has ever been forced out, and removing Mr. Starmer won’t be easy.
Under party rules, 80 Labour MPs can trigger a leadership contest. Mr. Starmer would also be allowed to run, and eligible voters would include MPs, party members and affiliated labour unions. “Keir Starmer doesn’t look like somebody who’s going to make it easy for them,” Dr. Travers said.
Potential rivals include Andrew Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester, and former deputy leader Angela Rayner. Both are believed to have lined up 80 MPs each, but they also have drawbacks.
Plaid Cymru is a centre-left party formed around 100 years ago to promote greater autonomy for Wales. A canvasser holds a flyer while knocking doors ahead of the Senedd election in Pontypridd, South Wales, on April 24.DARREN STAPLES/AFP/Getty Images
Mr. Burnham isn’t an MP, a requirement to be leader, so he would need to win a by-election. Earlier this year, Labour’s National Executive Committee, which includes Mr. Starmer, blocked Mr. Burnham from running in a by-election. That was seen as a sign that Mr. Starmer didn’t want a rival in Parliament. However, media reports suggest Mr. Burnham has won over the NEC and will have its backing if another seat becomes vacant.
Ms. Rayner had to resign from cabinet and as deputy leader last year over a scandal involving her failure to pay enough tax on the sale of a house. She has largely stayed in the background but is still considered a popular figure among party members and MPs.
In a recent article in The Observer, Mr. Starmer warned MPs about descending into political infighting. “We have a choice. We could sink into the politics of grievance and division. Or we could rise to this moment – together – in a national effort that matches the scale of the threats and turbulence we face,” he wrote.
Dr. Travers said losing power in Wales will be a psychological blow to the party. Welsh Labour has won every election since 1922, but polls show Plaid and Reform running neck and neck.
Plaid is a centre-left party formed roughly 100 years ago to ensure the protection of the Welsh language and promote greater autonomy for Wales. It has focused its current campaign on improving health care and education, but independence remains a long-term goal.
“I believe with every bone in my body that we will not be able to release our potential as a nation until we redesign the relationship between the nations of these islands,” party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth recently told The Daily Telegraph.
If Mr. ap Iorwerth becomes first minister and the SNP forms another government in Scotland, as polls suggest, three of the U.K.’s four nations will be led by nationalists, including Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, which has called for the reunification of Ireland.
Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said support for independence isn’t as strong in Wales as in Scotland, and a Plaid victory wouldn’t necessarily mean voters back sovereignty. The reunification of Ireland is also likely a long way off, he added.
“Having governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland nominally led by parties which, sooner of later, want to secede isn’t exactly ideal for Labour in Westminster and will create friction, but the end of the U.K. is far from nigh,” he said.