Ammunition is seen next to a tank destroyed in a fight between the Ethiopian National Defence Force and the Tigray People's Liberation Front forces in Kasagita town, Afar region, Ethiopia, in February, 2022.TIKSA NEGERI/Reuters
An ambitious attempt to disarm thousands of Ethiopian militia fighters, funded partly by Canada, is facing new obstacles as tensions rise and soldiers mobilize in the north of the African country.
Global Affairs Canada announced last year that it would spend $14-million on a plan to disarm and demobilize an estimated 75,000 fighters in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, along with tens of thousands of ex-combatants in other regions. But the project stalled after just 10 per cent of Tigray’s militia members had entered it.
Rival factions are jousting for power in Tigray, sparking fears of armed conflict in the region where hundreds of thousands were killed in an earlier war from 2020 to 2022. At the same time, Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea have been deploying their forces near their border, raising the spectre of a renewed battle between the two former enemies.
The growing tensions in northern Ethiopia are believed to be a key reason for the slow pace of the disarmament program. An internal memo last month by a senior Canadian diplomat, seen by The Globe and Mail, shows that Canada has asked Ethiopian officials to explain the delays.
Canada, in addition to providing funding for the project, has also “played a leading role in mobilizing engagement from other international donors,” the memo says.
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Ethiopian Defence Minister Aisha Mohammed said in a February meeting with Canadian diplomats that the disarmament program had been “paused” because of feuding between the two main Tigrayan factions, according to the memo.
One of the factions is opposed to any disarmament until Eritrean forces and an Amhara regional militia begin withdrawing from Tigray, the memo says, quoting the Defence Minister.
A federal government database of aid projects shows that the Canadian program began last August, in partnership with the United Nations Development Program, and Ottawa has already disbursed about $6.5-million in funds for it. In total, the project aims to help more than 370,000 former combatants in several regions of the country.
Canada’s ambassador to Ethiopia, Joshua Tabah, said the disarmament project is “critical for sustainable peace in Ethiopia” and would help the country to “heal and rebuild,” according to a UNDP statement last September.
Charlotte MacLeod, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada, said the program so far has helped to demobilize 17,855 of the 370,000 ex-combatants across the country. Canada expressed its concern at the temporary suspension of the program, but was “heartened” by Ethiopia’s promise to restart it, Ms. MacLeod said.
Ethiopia has pledged to complete the demobilization program within two years of its official beginning last November, she said: “We will work with partners towards the two-year timeline, but recognize that delays are not unusual in a program of this complexity.”
Tigrayan and Ethiopian leaders signed a peace agreement in November, 2022, to end the regional war that killed an estimated 600,000 people – one of the world’s deadliest conflicts in this century. But many of the agreement’s provisions have never been fulfilled, and Eritrean troops are reportedly refusing to leave some parts of Tigray.
Tensions have increased in recent months, both in Tigray and in the neighbouring Amhara region, where a local militia is battling Ethiopian forces. Earlier this month, militia fighters from one Tigrayan faction took control of radio stations and the mayor’s office in the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, along with several regional offices, provoking allegations of a coup against the regional administration.
Tigray is also the likely battleground if war erupts between Ethiopia and Eritrea, since the region is just south of the border between the two countries. Ethiopia, a landlocked country, is reportedly seeking access to the Red Sea, possibly through Eritrea. The governments of both Ethiopia and Eritrea have reportedly tried to recruit Tigrayan forces for a possible conflict between the two countries.
The entire Horn of Africa region has become increasingly threatened by war in recent months. Sudan has been engulfed in war for nearly two years, while sporadic fighting has continued in Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan, with frequent spillovers across borders.
“A resumption of violence could quickly escalate with devastating consequences for Tigray and the wider Horn,” the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies said in a report this week.
“Ethiopia’s neighbours are more unstable than in 2022, risking compounded and unintended consequences,” the report says. “With multiple armed actors in close proximity, the risk of miscalculation and provocation by political spoilers is high.”