Chinese President Xi Jinping. Beyond geopolitics, the war in Iran could hurt China economically as Iran, like Venezuela, is a major source of oil for China.SARAH MEYSSONNIER/AFP/Getty Images
China urged the U.S. to immediately halt its military action against Iran, following the death of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and calls from President Donald Trump for full regime change in Tehran.
Speaking Sunday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei as “unacceptable” and urged a “cessation of military operations and prompt return to dialogue and negotiations.”
Just as with the U.S. abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro however, there appears to be little Beijing can do as Washington moves to pick off another of its key allies, potentially shrinking China’s influence in the Middle East, where previous U.S. imperial actions in Iraq and Afghanistan had once created an opening to rival the U.S. as a major player.
Ali Khamenei, long-serving Supreme Leader who oversaw Iran’s theocratic rule, dies
The chaos wrought as a result of those invasions, followed by the collapse of Syria and Russia’s propping up of the brutal regime of Bashar al Assad, had enabled China to present itself to the region as the responsible superpower, keen to make deals, not topple governments.
While Beijing did have longstanding ties to U.S. enemies like Iran, the relative lack of Chinese historical baggage when it came to the Middle East enabled China to maintain good relations with Tehran’s rivals in Israel and Saudi Arabia, even brokering an historic normalization of relations between Tehran and Riyadh in 2023.
That same year, China welcomed Iran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Beijing-led security grouping, and supported Iran’s application to join the BRICS economic bloc. Tehran had successfully stared down an intense pressure campaign from the U.S. during Mr. Trump’s first term, and with the Saudi deal appeared poised for relative normalization, even as it maintained the missile and domestic nuclear programs that had long vexed Washington and Israel.
But then came the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent all-out invasion of Gaza and strikes on Lebanon and Iran, which plunged the Middle East into a new cycle of chaos and conflict. It appears the regime in Tehran may not, this time, be able to survive.
Speaking Sunday, Fu Cong, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, said “the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of Iran and other regional countries must be respected.”
“China stands ready to work with the international community to advance peace efforts and help restore peace and stability in the Middle East at an early date,” he added.
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What comes next, whether it is some sort of regime change, the emergence of a far-weakened successor government that will bend to U.S. demands, as in Venezuela, or a collapse into the type of bloody conflict seen in Iraq and Syria in recent decades, is unclear, but China’s influence over Iran could be severely curtailed.
And while yet another U.S. war will bolster Beijing’s positioning of itself as the responsible global superpower, it does not speak well to China’s ability to protect its neighbours, nor shore them up militarily: Iran was reportedly in the process of buying new Chinese anti-ship missiles as the U.S. and Israeli operation began.
Of China’s closest allies, only North Korea, which unlike Iran did pursue and successfully develop nuclear weapons, seems truly secure. Pyongyang this week suggested it would be willing to reopen talks with the U.S. – as during the first Trump administration – but only if Washington recognizes Kim Jong Un’s regime as a nuclear-armed state.
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Beyond geopolitics, the war in Iran could hurt China economically: like Venezuela, Iran is a major source of oil for the country, which has enjoyed sweetheart deals with the two heavily sanctioned producers. A loss of both Venezuelan and Iranian crude in the same year could prove an unwelcome shock to a still unsteady Chinese economy, just as Beijing appeared to have shored up growth in the face of Mr. Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
In an editorial Sunday, the state-run China Daily warned “instability in the Middle East threatens global energy markets, trade routes, and economic recovery far beyond the region.”
When the U.S. seized Mr. Maduro, some observers in China and the West saw the operation as a model Beijing could adopt in future for Taiwan, the self-ruled island China claims as its territory. Chinese military analysts have long mooted a decapitation strike – as the U.S. and Israel may also have pulled off in Iran – as a potential alternative to a bloody, drawn-out invasion.
China views Taiwan as an internal matter, and it’s unlikely that Beijing will make decisions based on U.S. military operations elsewhere. Nor is it clear the People’s Liberation Army is remotely ready for even a limited strike against Taiwan, amid massive purges that “have touched virtually every part” of the Chinese military, analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote last week, and “negatively impacted the PLA’s ability to conduct larger, more complex military exercises.”
Even so, Taiwan will be watching developments in the Middle East as nervously as anyone, looking in particular for how they may shape talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Mr. Trump in late March.
Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump discussed both Taiwan and Iran in a phone call in early February, with some analysts suggesting Beijing might seek concessions on Taiwan – such as blocking or reducing a massive U.S. arms sale to the island – in exchange for limiting support for Iran or messaging against U.S. aggression.
By the time the two leaders meet in Beijing, however, the latter issue may be a moot point.