Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Mina Al Fajer, United Arab Emirates on Wednesday.Altaf Qadri/The Associated Press
Beijing on Wednesday reiterated calls to maintain access through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international shipping line controlled by Iran, as the U.S. bombed minelaying ships and Tehran threatened to make the waterway a death trap for any vessels brave enough to try the passage.
But while China has called on all parties to step back from the rapidly escalating war, and dispatched a senior official to the Gulf to press its case, the crisis over the Strait has only underlined how the Asian superpower has found itself on the sidelines of the conflict in the Middle East.
In part, this is by design: While China has a long-term partnership with Iran and is Tehran’s largest trading partner, it also maintains good relations with the Gulf states and Israel. Saudi Arabia supplies more oil to China than Iran does, and trade with many of the Gulf states dwarfs that with Iran.
The loss of the current Iranian regime would be a blow to China’s interests in the region, but there is no reason to think it could not build good ties with any successor. Intervening to help prop up new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, however, could scupper relations with the Gulf states and anger a volatile Washington weeks before U.S. President Donald Trump is due to make a state visit to China.
China warns of threat to ‘vital’ Hormuz shipping route as Iran war expands
This balancing act can be seen in China’s public statements, which repeatedly reference the importance of respecting the “sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Gulf countries,” even when condemning the U.S.-Israeli strikes. This contrasts with the war in Ukraine, where Beijing has also called for an end to hostilities, but often adopts Russia’s framing of the conflict in both official communiqués and state media coverage, and has provided economic and allegedly even military support to Moscow.
Russia is a far more important ally to China than Iran, and as with the U.S. rendition of deposed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, when it comes to smaller powers, pragmatism tends to win out in Beijing’s calculations.
“The reality is that in spite of its pledges of partnership, and its public condemnations, Beijing has clearly demonstrated that ties with Iran and Venezuela do not rank anywhere close to the utility it sees in trying to improve relations with the Trump White House, and prevent it from again turning vengeful on China,” James Kynge, a senior research fellow for China at Chatham House, wrote Tuesday.
Expecting China to behave otherwise is a misreading of Beijing’s approach to international relations, according to Evan Feigenbaum, vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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Iran and Venezuela’s alliances with China were not equivalent to those brokered by the U.S., with attendant security obligations, Mr. Feigenbaum wrote this week.
“We can point to this arms deal or that security partnership or that claim to political influence. But it was never the case that Beijing would treat Tehran, much less Caracas, the way that Washington treats Tokyo,” he wrote.
“Too many Western strategists expect China to behave like the United States – and then when China does not behave like the United States, they conclude that it is a strategic failure rather than a deliberate choice, and that a chastened China has been put back on its heels,” he added.
This is not to say Beijing is unconcerned about the ramifications of the war, particularly any closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But China can weather near-term disruptions better than most other Asian nations, who rely heavily on fuel shipped from the Gulf.
According to customs data released Tuesday, China imported 15.8 per cent more oil in January and February compared to the same period the year before, increasing an already substantial stockpile Beijing has been maintaining since the war in Ukraine. China can also lean on Moscow to ease any pain from a reduced Middle East supply.
U.S. destroys mine-laying vessels after Iran’s Strait of Hormuz warning
Beijing is more concerned over potential disruption to shipping in general, with billions of dollars in exports threatened by any closure of the Strait of Hormuz. After most carriers stopped passage through the waterway, China’s transport ministry said Monday it had summoned representatives from European logistics giants Maersk Group and Mediterranean Shipping Company “to discuss their international shipping operations.”
At a news conference in the Chinese capital this week, Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, put the blame for any disruptions on the U.S., saying, “If the overall security of the strait and the surrounding area cannot be guaranteed, we cannot guarantee the safety of passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”
“We welcome any measures China may take to help end the war and prevent further acts of aggression,” Mr. Fazli said. “As a major country, China wields important influence in the region and across the world. We trust and hope that China will urge relevant parties to exercise restraint through dialogue.”
While Beijing is clearly pressuring Iran to maintain access to the Strait, Tehran is also suffering because of the closure, and it’s not clear what economic levers China could pull that would have a greater effect than Iran’s self-inflicted pain.
In the short term at least, Beijing may be winning favours in the White House by maintaining its pragmatist approach.