Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, left, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pose for a photo during their meeting in Tianjin, China, in a July 28.Li Ran/The Associated Press
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi wrapped up a series of meetings with top Taliban officials in Doha this week, as the militants continue to court Beijing for assistance in rebuilding Afghanistan.
A video posted Tuesday by Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid showed Mr. Wang receiving a gift from his Taliban counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in the Qatari capital. On Monday, the Chinese official met with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban deputy prime minister.
According to Chinese state media, Mr. Wang pressed both men for assurances the Taliban were “making a clean break” with the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Beijing has long blamed the ETIM for terrorist attacks and unrest in China, particularly in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, though independent analysts are skeptical of Chinese claims about the group’s size and capabilities.
State media quoted Mr. Baradar as saying the Taliban “attaches great importance to China’s security concerns and will resolutely honour its promise and never allow any forces to use Afghan territory to harm China.” Taliban statements did not mention the terrorism issue, focusing instead on economic co-operation.
Beijing has been tentatively supportive of the new Afghan government since the Taliban swept to power in August, ending 20 years of U.S. occupation. Along with Russia and Iran, China did not close its embassy in Kabul nor evacuate diplomats ahead of the militants’ advance.
Isolated throughout much of their previous rule in the late 1990s, the Taliban have been actively courting foreign ties this time around. Prior to their takeover, Afghanistan was dependent on international aid for about 40 per cent of its GDP, according to the World Bank, and the country’s economy has been in free fall since August.
China has appeared willing to step in and fill this gap, though not nearly as fast as the Taliban would like. In Doha, Mr. Wang urged the U.S. and other Western countries to lift sanctions on the group and “engage with the Afghan Taliban in a rational and pragmatic manner to help Afghanistan embark on a path of healthy development,” according to state media.
He also called on the Taliban to “effectively protect the rights and interests of women and children,” a key sticking point for the international community.
But Chinese officials remain wary of a potential security vacuum on the border of Xinjiang, where Beijing has been accused of interning millions of Uyghurs, a predominantly Muslim ethnic group. One of its justifications for the crackdown in the region is the alleged threat of terrorism, which China has mostly linked to ETIM.
Most public information about ETIM comes from Chinese sources, and Beijing has blamed the group for protests and other unrest in Xinjiang to which it has no apparent link, including incidents China has previously laid at the feet of other Uyghur groups.
According to Sean Roberts, author of The War on the Uyghurs: China’s Internal Campaign Against a Muslim Minority, even ETIM’s name itself deserves skepticism.
“As far as I can tell, no group has ever called itself the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement or ETIM,” he writes. “However, the group of Uyghurs that is usually associated with the ETIM label did exist and did establish a community in Afghanistan between 1998 and 2001 with the intent of initiating an insurgency inside China, a goal it never came close to attaining.”
Mr. Roberts and other experts argue China has used the ETIM label to conflate a number of mostly tiny militant groups or extremists – some Uyghur separatists, some Islamists – in order to justify the crackdown in Xinjiang.
ETIM was designated a terror group by the U.S. during the George W. Bush administration, when Washington was cultivating Chinese support for the “war on terror.” But last year, the State Department delisted the group, saying that “for more than a decade, there has been no credible evidence that ETIM continues to exist.”
This does not mean that the potential for a Uyghur group to begin operating in a newly destabilized Afghanistan is not a real concern for Beijing, however, though the ability of any militant group to strike in highly surveilled Xinjiang is doubtful.
One major point of concern for Beijing will be recent statements by the Islamic State Khorasan, or ISIS-K, an offshoot of the Syrian-based militant organization, which has taken credit for a series of deadly terrorist attacks since the Taliban takeover.
A bombing at a Shia mosque in the northeastern city of Kunduz was carried out by a Uyghur fighter, according to a statement carried by the ISIS-linked Amaq News Agency. The statement linked the bombing to the Taliban’s apparent willingness to deport Uyghurs from Afghanistan to China.
ISIS-K has emerged as one of the main domestic threats to the Taliban, with experts warning the group may be siphoning off more extremist members who are unhappy with minor Taliban concessions on issues such as women’s rights and the participation of ethnic minorities in government.
However, both the main Islamic State organization and its Afghan affiliate have largely avoided targeting China or even using the plight of the Uyghurs in their propaganda. This may be changing, according to Nodirbek Soliev, a senior analyst with the Singapore-based International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research.
“ISK’s framing of the Kunduz attack through China and Uyghur rhetoric is a manifestation of the group’s growing disappointment with Beijing’s evolving diplomatic and economic engagement with the Taliban,” he wrote this week, using an alternative acronym for the group. “For ISK, a stronger Taliban state means more serious challenges to its ambitions and survival in Afghanistan. Increased Chinese involvement in the post-Taliban Afghanistan will further antagonize IS and ISK.”
Mr. Soliev added that ISIS-K may see the Taliban’s apparent willingness to deport Uyghurs as an opportunity to “position itself as a new protector,” increasing its opportunities for recruitment.
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