François Hollande, former president of the French Republic, at Le Windsor in Montreal on Nov. 21.Andrej Ivanov/The Globe and Mail
When Donald Trump says he is going to do something, like end the war in Ukraine or slap tariffs on Europe, believe him: That is the lesson François Hollande says he learned the hard way when he was president of France.
Visiting Montreal on Thursday as a guest of the law firm Davies, Mr. Hollande gave a wide-ranging interview on the margins of the firm’s annual conference about his experience dealing with Mr. Trump and the far right during his time in the Élysée Palace from 2012 to 2017.
With another Trump presidency about to dawn, Mr. Hollande wants the world to remember that his former American counterpart usually isn’t one for bluffing.
“Trump is among those leaders who, by their excesses, lead us to believe they won’t go all the way, but then really does go all the way,” said the former Socialist leader. “Excess is part of his promise. He won’t try to reduce or attenuate what he’s proposed. He’s going to do it. That’s what we have to understand now.“
When Mr. Hollande got his first phone call from Mr. Trump in November, 2016, the French president didn’t know how seriously to take the reality-TV star. During the U.S. election campaign that year, Mr. Hollande had memorably said the Republican nominee made people want to “retch.”
Then, the victorious president-elect was on the other end of the line, promising to blow up two of Mr. Hollande’s signature achievements: the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal.
Was it bluster? A provocation? Mr. Hollande quickly learned that the man in the White House meant business when he announced U.S. withdrawal from both agreements.
“In 2016, when he was elected, it was a surprise. You could say to yourself, ‘He won’t go back on the climate accord, he won’t throw into question the accord on Iran, he won’t move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,’” recalled Mr. Hollande. “He did it! He did everything he said he was going to do.”
Now that Mr. Trump is returning to the White House with a new set of provocative promises – including making Europe pay “a big price” on trade and ending the war in Ukraine “in a day” – Mr. Hollande says the international community should expect a similar level of follow-through.
The overlap between the two presidents did not last long. Shortly after Mr. Trump moved into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., Mr. Hollande vacated the Élysée after making the unprecedented decision not to run for a second term. His approval rating had fallen to single digits and his former protégé, Emmanuel Macron, had broken from him to form a new centrist party that was gaining momentum.
The Hollande presidency began modestly in 2012 when he was elected on a promise to be a “normal” leader, unlike his flashy and scandal-plagued predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, but commotion soon found the long-time Socialist party operative. On New Year’s Day in 2014, he was photographed by the paparazzi riding a motorized scooter to meet his lover, the actress Julie Gayet, a story that was soon splashed on the cover of a prominent magazine. (He and Ms. Gayet are now married.)
Geopolitical drama overshadowed the tabloid fodder during Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March of that year, when Mr. Hollande was applauded for cancelling a Russian order for a pair of French-made helicopter carriers.
It was a moment of confrontation that gave him a window into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s character and world view, which Mr. Hollande compared to another world leader accused of authoritarianism.
“Trump’s strategy is to use strength to not have to engage … It’s, ‘I put myself in a position of strength so I don’t even have to intervene,’ ” Mr. Hollande observed. “Putin is, ‘I use force. I don’t even show it. I am ready to use it.’ … One believes strength can convince, the other that strength can conquer.“
The two leaders now appear to hold the fate of Ukraine in their hands. Mr. Trump and some congressional Republicans, including vice-president-elect JD Vance, have criticized or outright opposed U.S. aid packages to the embattled country since the Russian invasion in 2022. Mr. Hollande now fears that the peace promised by the incoming administration will amount to surrender.
“If Trump deprives Ukraine of financial or military resources and Europe doesn’t compensate, then what will Putin say? … ‘What I’ve conquered and continue to conquer, it’s Russia now. And I’ll take the rest if you resist.’ That would be capitulation.“
After Mr. Hollande’s departure from the presidency, he wrote a book about leadership and two books for children (he has grandkids), before surprising the political establishment by running for a seat in the National Assembly this year. He was elected and now represents the central French riding of Corrèze.
With his wayward political son, Mr. Macron, mired in unpopularity and legislative gridlock after nearly eight years in power, there are even rumours that Mr. Hollande may launch an improbable comeback and try to become the Socialist candidate for president in 2027.
On Thursday, he did not rule out the possibility of following Mr. Trump’s path to non-consecutive presidencies, saying only that “a person can’t win by themselves now. … The Socialist Party needs to expand, grow stronger.“
Parties of the centre left – like the somewhat misleadingly named Socialists – can’t just fall into a defensive crouch when competing against the ideological extremes, Mr. Hollande argued.
“Faced with people who talk all the time about power and strength, we can’t just go into turtle position. We have to get out of our shell,” he said. “The left needs to show that we’re advancing.”